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Matthieu Plu

models. They estimated a mean predictability per basin. Because of the remarkable improvement of operational models for cyclone track prediction in the very recent years, it is relevant to assess the inherent global predictability with other methods based on up-to-date numerical models. Moreover, some global models, like the one from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), have such improved that one can wonder if they have not reached the predictability limit for tropical

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Hyun Mee Kim and Byoung-Joo Jung

physics are useful for targeting TCs. These targeted diabatic SVs were used for generating initial perturbations in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system for TC prediction ( Puri et al. 2001 ). Peng and Reynolds (2006) showed that inclusion of moist physics (i.e., large-scale precipitation) in the SV calculation yields similar patterns to those obtained from dry SVs, but moist SVs have relatively stronger sensitivities in the vicinity of the TC

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Kun-Hsuan Chou, Chun-Chieh Wu, Po-Hsiung Lin, Sim D. Aberson, Martin Weissmann, Florian Harnisch, and Tetsuo Nakazawa

observation cases in 2008 are described in section 5 , and the conclusions are given in section 6 . 2. The model descriptions and experimental designs To evaluate the impact of dropwindsonde data on numerical forecasts in the western North Pacific during the DOTSTAR and T-PARC programs, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) modeling systems are used. a. NCEP

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Munehiko Yamaguchi, Ryota Sakai, Masayuki Kyoda, Takuya Komori, and Takashi Kadowaki

%, 20%, and 23% at 24, 48, and 72 h, respectively. Furthermore, Komori et al. (2007) have verified the ensemble mean track of three global models from operational NWP centers, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), JMA, and UKMO. In the verification of 48- and 96-h predictions for the western North Pacific basin from 1991 to 2005, and for the Atlantic basin from 1999 to 2005, the ensemble mean has the best performance with respect to the best of the individual models with

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Chun-Chieh Wu, Jan-Huey Chen, Sharanya J. Majumdar, Melinda S. Peng, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Sim D. Aberson, Roberto Buizza, Munehiko Yamaguchi, Shin-Gan Chen, Tetsuo Nakazawa, and Kun-Hsuan Chou

Administration (NOAA) Winter Storms Reconnaissance, NOAA synoptic surveillance, and The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX). In 2003, the Atlantic Ocean THORPEX regional campaign was launched to improve forecasts of winter cyclones over Europe, using a wider variety of instruments than was possible during the Fronts and Atlantic Storm Track Experiment (FASTEX; Joly et al. 1997 ) and the North Pacific Experiment (NORPEX; Langland et al. 1999 ). Several of the objective methods

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Carolyn A. Reynolds, Melinda S. Peng, and Jan-Huey Chen

storms, Shanshan (WP14) and Yagi (WP16) that both had relatively large 5-day perturbation growth. The baroclinic instability over the North Pacific is much stronger for the September average than for the August average. This result is consistent with that of Cardinali et al. (2007) who found that, for verification regions over Europe (as opposed to the TC-based verification regions used here), observations in sensitive regions during extratropical transitions had larger downstream impacts when the

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Ryan D. Torn and Gregory J. Hakim

observations are taken from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) statistics, and we assume that dropsonde errors are characterized by radiosondes. These experiments also assimilate targeted dropsondes deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division (HRD; e.g., Aberson 2002 ) and the RAINEX field campaign. Since raw dropsonde data often contains high-frequency temporal noise that can be problematic for data assimilation, we assimilate

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Munehiko Yamaguchi, Takeshi Iriguchi, Tetsuo Nakazawa, and Chun-Chieh Wu

average position error of 4-day forecasts in 2005 (301 km), which are the consensus of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and the Met Office (UKMO), is about the same as that of the 2-day forecasts in 1991 (282 km), indicating the success in obtaining a 2-day lead time over the past 15 yr ( Komori et al. 2007 ). However, we all know that forecast uncertainty is one key unavoidable aspect of weather forecasting due to the chaotic

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Mu Mu, Feifan Zhou, and Hongli Wang

. Grassotti , and T. Nehrkorn , 2006 : The response of damaging winds of a simulated tropical cyclone to finite amplitude perturbations of different variables. J. Atmos. Sci. , 63 , 1924 – 1937 . Hoskins , B. J. , and M. M. Coutinho , 2005 : Moist singular vectors and the predictability of some high impact European cyclones. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 131 , 581 – 601 . Joly , A. , and Coauthors , 1997 : The Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment (FASTEX): Scientific

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Peter Black, Lee Harrison, Mark Beaubien, Robert Bluth, Roy Woods, Andrew Penny, Robert W. Smith, and James D. Doyle

3) program] humidity values and the Scanning High-Resolution Interferometer Sounder (S-HIS) humidity values. S-HIS was initialized using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model fields as a first guess in profile retrievals. S-HIS showed consistently higher humidities relative to the minisonde on the order of 40% above 400 mb for 14 intercomparisons during 2012. Cursory examination of 2013 minisonde and S-HIS humidity data indicates that this issue still persists

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