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Bogdan Antonescu, Tomáš Púçik, and David M. Schultz

1. Introduction The first known tornado forecast in Europe occurred on 25 June 1967 when meteorologists from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) recognized that, following several tornadoes upstream over northern France on 24 June, the synoptic pattern was not changing overnight. Dutch weatherman Joop den Tonkelaar appeared on an early morning radio show on 25 June and warned about the possibility of tornadoes over the Netherlands later that day. His forecast was based on a

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Brice E. Coffer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Matthew D. Parker

Europe have long been hindered by a lack of standardized reporting practices of severe weather events. To address this issue, researchers at the European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) began developing the European severe weather database (ESWD) in the mid-2000s to create a standardized database across nations in collaboration with networks of volunteers and multiple meteorological agencies ( Dotzek et al. 2009 ). Historical and current reports are actively integrated into the ESWD and recent events

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Johannes M. L. Dahl and Jannick Fischer

1. Introduction Warm-season thunderstorms over western Europe often develop along surface wind-shift lines characterized by horizontal convergence (hereafter referred to as convergence lines) within the warm sector east of the cold front of an extratropical cyclone. Typically, these lines first appear over France or the Bay of Biscay ahead of a cold front and then spread northeastward. The convergence lines are accompanied by a trough in the surface-pressure field and sometimes a rather

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Christoph Gatzen

overview In the second week of July, the upper- and midtropospheric flow over Europe was dominated by an intense trough across the northwestern part of the continent, yielding a deep southwesterly flow over the western regions ( Fig. 1a ). Over south-central Europe, the flow was split into two branches, a northern branch, which stretched from France and Benelux to the North Sea, and a second branch, which deviated toward the central Mediterranean, where it formed a weak ridge. Along the periphery of

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Florian Pappenberger and Roberto Buizza

. Assessing the quality of ensemble forecasts is rather complex and involves the use of assessment metrics that are different from the ones normally used to assess single forecasts. The reader is referred to, for example, Wilks (1995) , for a comprehensive discussion of the issue of the evaluation of the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts. Ensemble forecasts have been used in hydrological applications within the European Commission’s Prevention, Information and Early Warning project (PREVIEW

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Maurice J. Schmeits, Kees J. Kok, Daan H. P. Vogelezang, and Rudolf M. van Westrhenen

from mid-April to mid-October) for the 90 km × 80 km regions in the Netherlands, out to 48 h in advance with 6-h periods ( SKV05 ). This operational forecast system runs 4 times a day and is based on combined postprocessed output from the High-Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM; Undén and Coauthors 2002 ) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. In this paper we describe the development and verification of a new MOS system for both the probability of

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George P. Pacey, David M. Schultz, and Luis Garcia-Carreras

1. Introduction One of the hazards of severe convective storms is strong winds. Nontornadic convective windstorms in the United States during the 10 years 1998–2007 killed 191 people ( Schoen and Ashley 2011 ). For comparison, during the 10 years from 2009 to 2020, nontornadic convective windstorms were associated with 78 confirmed fatalities in Europe (source: data from the European Severe Weather Database, http://www.eswd.eu ). Both the United States and Europe have comparable areas (around

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Christian Keil, Arnold Tafferner, Hermann Mannstein, and Ulrich Schättler

rate is complicated because of the use of various reflectivity–rainfall rate relationships, different scanning procedures, and calibration methods used within a network of radars ( Hagen et al. 2000 ). A second approach is the “model-to-observation” method. With respect to satellite data, forward radiative transfer models (RTMs) are used to transform model control variables to parameters observed by satellites. Such a forward RTM is used at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

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Kristian Horvath, Stjepan Ivatek-Šahdan, Branka Ivančan-Picek, and Vanda Grubišić

southern and northern Adriatic. It is well known that the synoptic pressure pattern over Europe can be used to distinguish between an anticyclonic and a cyclonic bora (e.g., Defant 1951 ; Yoshino; 1976 ; Heinmann 2001 ; Pandžić and Likso 2005 ). The anticyclonic bora develops under the influence of a high pressure system over central Europe (upstream of the Dinaric Alps). The cyclonic bora, on the other hand, is associated with the existence of a low pressure area over the central Mediterranean

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Simon C. Scherrer, Christof Appenzeller, Pierre Eckert, and Daniel Cattani

1969 ; Leith 1974 ). But since these experiments require huge amounts of computer power, operational probabilistic prediction was not feasible until the 1990s. Today the Monte Carlo system is called the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) and was introduced at the U.S. National Meteorological Center, now known as the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), in 1992 and in the same year at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ( Toth and Kalnay 1993 ; Molteni et

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