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Toward a Systematic Evaluation of Warm Conveyor Belts in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part I: Predictor Selection and Logistic Regression Model

Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams

wintertime blocking frequency over the Atlantic–European sector ( Matsueda 2009 ; Quinting and Vitart 2019 ). Furthermore, the structure and propagation of upper-level Rossby waves have been shown to be systematically misrepresented in several NWP models ( Gray et al. 2014 ; Quinting and Vitart 2019 ). Since the representation of blocking is closely related to the representation of upper-level Rossby waves (e.g., Altenhoff et al. 2008 ; Martínez-Alvarado et al. 2018 ), it would be worthwhile to

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