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Douglas E. Miller and Zhuo Wang

Atlantic and impact weather and climate over eastern North America and western Europe ( Hurrell 1995 ; Scaife et al. 2008 ). The NAO is a regional manifestation of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), or the northern annular mode (NAM), which is considered the dominant mode of variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics ( Thompson and Wallace 1998 ). Previous studies (e.g., DeWeaver and Nigam 2000 ; Hurrell et al. 2003 ) suggested that the internal dynamics of the atmosphere, particularly eddy

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Alexis Berg and Justin Sheffield

of the twenty-first century (2071–2100) under scenario RCP8.5. Figure 6a shows an important aspect of model uncertainties in future projections of summertime climate; across the CMIP5 ensemble, models that are warmer in summer under present-day climate conditions tend to project larger warming in the future over large swaths of the land surface: northern United States and Canada, eastern Europe, central Asia, northern Australia, the Amazon, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa. This positive

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Alexis Berg and Justin Sheffield

fraction of transpiration increases while the fraction of soil evaporation decreases over most of these regions ( Figs. 8d–f ). Exceptions to this pattern include parts of Europe, northeast China, and the eastern United States, where it is the fraction of soil evaporation that increases (although transpiration still increases in absolute terms). Absolute increases in all three components are consistent with increases in precipitation in these regions. This precipitation-driven behavior also explains

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Motoki Nagura, J. P. McCreary, and H. Annamalai

al. 2008 ). Surface winds are obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim; Dee et al. 2011 ). Horizontal grid intervals are 1° × 1° for WOA13 and OAFlux, 2.5° × 2.5° for GPCP rain, and 1.5° × 1.5° for the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The time series we use for each dataset extend from 1979 to 2015 for GPCP rainfall and the ERA-Interim reanalysis, 1984 to 2009 for OAFlux surface heat flux, and 1985 to 2014 for OAFlux evaporative flux

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James F. Booth, Young-Oh Kwon, Stanley Ko, R. Justin Small, and Rym Msadek

the similarities between Figs. 10f and 10b , especially off the U.S. East Coast, the Labrador Sea, and northwestern Europe, as a strong indication that model biases in T DIFF create biases in momentum mixing and these impact the surface storm tracks. Similar results are not apparent in multimodel mean biases for the North Pacific (not shown). However, biases in the multimodel mean T DIFF are negligible there. This might also explain the lack of significance in the model-to-model correlations

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Catherine M. Naud, James F. Booth, Jeyavinoth Jeyaratnam, Leo J. Donner, Charles J. Seman, Ming Zhao, Huan Guo, and Yi Ming

://www.cloudsat.cira.colostate.edu ), the MERRA-2 products come from NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center, and the ERA-Interim products are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Internet site. REFERENCES Ackerman , S. A. , R. E. Holz , R. Frey , E. W. Eloranta , B. C. Maddux , and M. McGill , 2008 : Cloud detection with MODIS. Part II: Validation . J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. , 25 , 1073 – 1086 , https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JTECHA1053.1 . 10.1175/2007JTECHA1053

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Suzana J. Camargo, Claudia F. Giulivi, Adam H. Sobel, Allison A. Wing, Daehyun Kim, Yumin Moon, Jeffrey D. O. Strong, Anthony D. Del Genio, Maxwell Kelley, Hiroyuki Murakami, Kevin A. Reed, Enrico Scoccimarro, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Michael F. Wehner, Colin Zarzycki, and Ming Zhao

models (P3, P4, P5, and P10). Only three models are not tracked with either of these algorithms: P1, P2, and P6. To explore the sensitivity of our results to the tracking algorithm, we will show in the online supplement a few key figures grouped by tracking algorithm. b. Data We compare the models’ environmental fields with those produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) dataset ( Dee et al. 2011 ), which is available from 1979 to the

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