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John M. Peters, Christopher J. Nowotarski, and Gretchen L. Mullendore

updrafts will entrain less per unit vertical mass flux at a given height than narrower updrafts. Furthermore, Morrison (2017) showed that because wider updrafts have smaller fractional entrainment rates, they are less susceptible to breaking down into discrete transient thermals than their narrower counterparts. These arguments suggest that supercells may be resistant to the deleterious effects of lateral entrainment because they are wider than ordinary updrafts (we will call this the “width

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Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Jason Otkin, Xiwu Zhan, Kingtse Mo, Mark Svoboda, Brian Wardlow, and Agustin Pimstein

1. Introduction Drought monitoring is a complex and multifaceted endeavor, warranting use of multiple tools. Drought impacts can be manifested in all components of the hydrologic budget: in water supply terms (precipitation), in storage (soil moisture, snowpack, groundwater, and surface water), and in exchange or flux terms (evapotranspiration, snowmelt, drainage/recharge, runoff, and streamflow). Each of these components has relevance to specific groups of stakeholders, and each has a unique

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Richard Seager, Lisa Goddard, Jennifer Nakamura, Naomi Henderson, and Dong Eun Lee

and Texas across the entire eastern United States while the mean flow produces a moisture convergence anomaly in roughly the same area but dries western Texas and the interior southwest United States. The same drying of northern Mexico, Texas, and the eastern United States by anomalous transient eddy moisture flux divergence occurs in both models in MAM 2011 while anomalous mean flow moisture divergence causes widespread drying across the central and northern Plains, Rocky Mountains, and Great

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Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Iliana E. Mladenova, Jeffrey B. Basara, and Mark Svoboda

methodology a. ESI The ESI is computed using actual ET estimates from the ALEXI model, which is run daily over the contiguous United States (CONUS) with 10-km horizontal grid spacing. ALEXI uses a two-source energy balance (TSEB) model initially developed by Norman et al. (1995) to consider energy processes for vegetated and bare soil components of the land surface. In the TSEB, LST is used to directly constrain the sensible heat flux, with the latent heat flux [ λE (W m −2 ), where E is ET (mm s −1

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Youlong Xia, Michael B. Ek, David Mocko, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Justin Sheffield, Jiarui Dong, and Eric F. Wood

. (2011) evaluated soil moisture and water and energy fluxes from different systems, that is, the ensemble-mean of the NLDAS models ( Xia et al. 2012b ), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR; Saha et al. 2010 ), and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR; Mesinger et al. 2006 ), using in situ observations. The results showed that the NLDAS ensemble-mean was the closest to the observations when compared with the other two systems

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Paul A. Dirmeyer, Jiangfeng Wei, Michael G. Bosilovich, and David M. Mocko

. 2011 ; Trenberth et al. 2011 ), which affect the surface water budget, and there is evidence that interannual precipitation variance may be weak in key areas ( Bosilovich 2013 ). Jiménez et al. (2011) compared many reanalyses and other global estimates of surface heat fluxes and found MERRA to be in line with other products, but it had some vagaries associated with precipitation and canopy interception biases, especially over South America. Reichle et al. (2011) performed a land-only replay of

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Bart Nijssen, Shraddhanand Shukla, Chiyu Lin, Huilin Gao, Tian Zhou, Ishottama, Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

. Calibration of Watershed Models, Q. Duan et al., Eds., Water Science and Applications Series, Vol. 6, Amer. Geophys. Union, 239–254 . Liang, X. , Lettenmaier D. P. , Wood E. F. , and Burges S. J. , 1994 : A simple hydrologically based model of land-surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models . J. Geophys. Res. , 99 , 14 415 – 14 428 , doi: 10.1029/94JD00483 . Livneh, B. , Rosenberg E. A. , Lin C. , Nijssen B. , Mishra V. , Andreadis K. , Maurer E. P. , and

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Kingtse C. Mo and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

weather and climate models . J. Geophys. Res. , 104 , 19 569 – 19 585 , doi: 10.1029/1999JD900232 . Liang, X. , Lettenmaier D. P. , Wood E. F. , and Burges S. J. , 1994 : A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models . J. Geophys. Res. , 99 , 14 415 – 14 428 , doi: 10.1029/94JD00483 . Live Science , cited 2004 : Billion dollar disasters: A chronology of United States events. [Available online at www.livescience.com/114

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Sujay V. Kumar, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, David Mocko, Rolf Reichle, Yuqiong Liu, Kristi R. Arsenault, Youlong Xia, Michael Ek, George Riggs, Ben Livneh, and Michael Cosh

outputs. The NLDAS domain consists of a ⅛° regular latitude–longitude grid centered over the CONUS (25°–53°N, 125°–67°W). The NLDAS project produces an LSM forcing dataset from a daily gauge-based precipitation analysis, bias-corrected shortwave radiation, and surface meteorology reanalysis. This meteorological dataset is then used to drive a number of LSMs to generate hourly model outputs of land surface conditions including fluxes, soil moisture, snow states (snow cover, SWE, and snow depth), runoff

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Eric F. Wood, Siegfried D. Schubert, Andrew W. Wood, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Kingtse C. Mo, Annarita Mariotti, and Roger S. Pulwarty

, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1 . Koster, R. D. , Walker G. K. , Mahanama S. P. P. , and Reichle R. H. , 2014 : Soil moisture initialization error and subgrid variability of precipitation in seasonal streamflow forecasting . J. Hydrometeor. , 15 , 69 – 88 , doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-13-050.1 . Liang, X. , Lettenmaier D. P. , Wood E. F. , and Burges S. J. , 1994 : A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models . J. Geophys

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