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Krzysztof Wargan and Lawrence Coy

compared to the analysis. Some of this underestimate can be traced back to a tendency for the forecasts to underestimate the wave forcing on the stratosphere with respect to MERRA-2. Figure 10 plots the vertical component of the Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux at 100 hPa during January–February 2009 for both MERRA-2 and the 23 forecasts. Here the vertical EP flux (based only on the meridional heat flux, as the vertical momentum flux is negligibly small for the planetary scale waves of interest) is calculated

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