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Toward a Systematic Evaluation of Warm Conveyor Belts in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part I: Predictor Selection and Logistic Regression Model

Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams

vapor transport that supplies moisture to the base of the WCB ( Wernli 1997 ; Dacre et al. 2019 ). The WCB starts to ascend across the warm front of the cyclone (label 2 in Fig. 1 ), collocated with a region of upper- and lower-tropospheric quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent ( Binder et al. 2016 ). WCB ascent is accompanied by strong latent heat release due to stratiform and convective cloud and precipitation formation ( Neiman and Shapiro 1993 ; Oertel et al. 2019 ), which is sensitive to the

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