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Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Andreas Schlueter, and Tilmann Gneiting

forcing from the extratropics during the transition seasons (e.g., Kiladis and Weickmann 1997 ; Knippertz 2007 ). To first order, the pattern over the ocean has some resemblance with the discrepancy measure shown in Fig. 2b , indicating that a lack of calibration explains at least part of the poor skill over the ocean. Forecasts over land are generally more skillful but regional contrasts can be very large. There is a general tendency for higher skill in the relatively drier outer tropics away from

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Roderick van der Linden, Andreas H. Fink, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Tan Phan-Van

period of heavy precipitation was even shorter and ended at about 1200 UTC 27 July 2015. In the following, the focus is put on the first period because of 1) the persistence of rainfall, 2) the fact that the highest (station) rainfall amounts were almost exclusively observed in regions close to the coast, and 3) the large-scale dynamical forcing (see section 4 ). 4. Synoptic–dynamic development Strong convection was linked to a weak surface low in the Gulf of Tonkin and northeastern Vietnam during

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Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Andreas Schlueter, and Tilmann Gneiting

Prediction System website ( http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/EPSv ) by comparing deterministic and probabilistic skill scores for 24-h precipitation forecasts for the 20°N–20°S tropical belt with those for the Northern and Southern Hemisphere extratropics. There are hints that precipitation and cloudiness forecasts in the tropics show enhanced skill during regimes of stronger synoptic-scale forcing ( Söhne et al. 2008 ; Davis et al. 2013 ; Van der Linden et al. 2017 ) or in regions of orographic forcing

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