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P. C. D. Milly and Krista A. Dunne

multiplication by a precipitation factor. The differences and factors used in these adjustments were obtained from the climate-model outputs. Each such adjustment, computed for each month of the year, corresponded to a moving 12-yr future time window applied to the output of a single climate model that was run with a particular climate-forcing scenario from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES; Nakicenovic et al. 2000 ). Differences and factors were computed relative to the historical climate

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John F. Walker, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Michael D. Dettinger

. As an alternative, we apply a methodology for estimating probability distributions of hydrologic responses by resampling the information contained in the ensemble of hydrologic predictions. The resulting distributions provide useful estimates of the probability that various magnitudes of hydrologic response will result (in the PRMS models) from any subset of the climate-change projection ensemble used here to force the watershed models ( Dettinger 2006 ). For this paper, the changing magnitude of

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Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Christian Ward-Garrison

.2. GCMs General circulation models (or global climate models) are numerical models that represent all components of the Earth system, including the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and land surface. The climate-change signal from individual GCMs (i.e., the difference between simulated future climate and simulated historical climate) can vary in direction and magnitude because of the uncertainties associated with each GCM parameterization, initial forcings, emission scenarios, and representation of the

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William Battaglin, Lauren Hay, and Markstrom Steve

://cwcbweblink.state.co.us/weblink/docview.aspx?id=119003&searchhandle=12637 .] Dettinger , M. D. , and D. R. Cayan , 1995 : Large-scale atmospheric forcing of recent trends toward early snowmelt runoff in California . J. Climate , 8 , 606 – 623 . Dickens , C. , 1859 : A Tale of Two Cities . Chapman, & Hall, 430 pp . Gunnison Country Chamber of Commerce , cited 2011 : About Gunnison, Colorado . [Available online at http://www.gunnison-co.com/index.php?pid=aboutgunnison .] Hay , L. E. , W. Battaglin , R. Parker , and G

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Mark C. Mastin, Katherine J. Chase, and R. W. Dudley

hydrologic processes is attained by partitioning the basin into HRUs, which are units of land in the basin with similar runoff response to climate forcing. A water and energy balance is computed for each HRU by accounting for surface, soil zone, subsurface, and groundwater storages and fluxes. On each HRU, the model simulates initiation, accumulation, and depletion of a two-layered snowpack. Daily outputs of SWE and SCA for each of the HRUs were stored for each model run. Climate-change fields

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