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Marvin Xiang Ce Seow, Yushi Morioka, and Tomoki Tozuka

) and (c) are the input data for the MEOF analysis. Covariances between unscaled first PC time series with NDJ (d) net shortwave radiation, (e) latent heat flux, and (f) horizontal advection and surface oceanic current. (g) First mode PC time series, with dashed lines indicating the one standard deviation thresholds and blue (red) solid circles indicating strong (weak) CT years. At the same time, the winter monsoon is strongly modulated by various tropical remote forcings, such as ENSO ( Wang et al

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Jian Ling, Yuqing Zhao, and Guiwan Chen

-propagation speed, and seasonal cycle. Hung et al. (2013) indicated only one GCM was able to simulate the observed eastward propagation of the MJO in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Jiang et al. (2015) showed that only a quarter of the GCMs that participated in the MJO Task Force (MJOTF) ( Moncrieff et al. 2012 ; Waliser et al. 2012 ) and the GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) ( Petch et al. 2011 ; we refer to this by the abbreviation MJOTF/GASS in this study) could produce

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Claire L. Vincent and Todd P. Lane

maintain consistency with observed intraseasonal variability, spectral nudging toward ERA-Interim was performed for the 12-km domain only for wavelengths longer than 1000 km above the boundary layer, with an inverse nudging time scale of 0.0003 s −1 for all nudged variables. Liu et al. (2012) showed that spectral nudging achieved a better balance between maintaining consistency with large-scale forcing while allowing smaller-scale variance to develop than grid nudging, and Vincent and Hahmann (2015

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Chen Li, Jing-Jia Luo, and Shuanglin Li

layer” parameterization scheme is based on that of Lock et al. (2000) with the modifications described in Lock (2001) and Brown et al. (2008) . It is a first-order turbulence closure mixing adiabatically conserved heat and moisture variables, momentum, and tracers. For more details of the model physics, readers are referred to Walters et al. (2017) . We examine UM-GA6’s performance in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs from 1982 to 2008 with observed SST forcing. The

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Shijian Hu, Ying Zhang, Ming Feng, Yan Du, Janet Sprintall, Fan Wang, Dunxin Hu, Qiang Xie, and Fei Chai

layer salinity in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean is influenced by the annual cycles of the ITF and the Leeuwin Current transports, air–sea freshwater forcing, and eddy fluxes ( Zhang et al. 2016 ). Strong salinity fronts observed within the equatorial region show meridional migration associated with the intertropical convergence zone and meridional ocean currents, which may be modulated interannually by zonal advections of less saline waters from the eastern Indian Ocean related to the ITF

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Kevin E. Trenberth and Yongxin Zhang

Zealand downstream. Hence the change in local winds also force some modifications in surface fluxes and wind stress. Any link between ENSO-related variations in the ITF and the Tasman Sea heat waves has been generally assigned to the atmospheric bridge connections. The studies thus far have overlooked the likelihood that there is also a direct ocean connection through the changes in mass and heat transport with the ITF that indeed relate to opposite changes in the East Australian Current region

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See Yee Lim, Charline Marzin, Prince Xavier, Chih-Pei Chang, and Bertrand Timbal

the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM; Huffman et al. 2007 ), which provides a continuous rainfall dataset covering the period from 1998 onward and allows direct study on the rainfall impacts of CSs and MJO that provide forcing from outside of the region. The quasistationary Borneo vortex that was studied by Chang et al. (2005a) is a local system that interacts with both cold surges and MJO and always has strong effects on rainfall. Its explicit impacts will be left to future study

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Chidong Zhang and Jian Ling

tend to reduce diurnal fluctuations in surface temperature, a main direct diurnal forcing for land convection. Peatman et al. (2014) pointed out a “vanguard of precipitation” that increases over land more than over the sea of the MC immediately prior to the arrival of the large-scale convective envelope of the canonical MJO that propagates through the MC. This vanguard of precipitation is more pronounced for MJO-C than MJO-B ( Fig. 13 ). Land precipitation of MJO-C is slightly stronger than that

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Jieshun Zhu, Wanqiu Wang, and Arun Kumar

region strengthen or weaken the surface winds, which reduce or enhance the latent heat flux (LHF) at the ocean surface. Further, variations in solar shortwave radiation flux (SWF) at the surface associated with MJO-related changes in cloudiness also occur. The combination of these flux variations can induce SST anomalies to the east and west of the convective region. The zonal SST gradient causes zonal changes in surface moist static energy and provides surface forcing, which induces the convection

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Chu-Chun Chen, Min-Hui Lo, Eun-Soon Im, Jin-Yi Yu, Yu-Chiao Liang, Wei-Ting Chen, Iping Tang, Chia-Wei Lan, Ren-Jie Wu, and Rong-You Chien

condition, such as a “fish-bone” deforestation pattern, can induce mesoscale atmospheric circulation under weak synoptic-scale forcing that can enhance cloudiness and rainfall ( Wang et al. 2009 ; Negri et al. 2004 ; Roy 2009 ). A regional climate modeling study revealed an increase in precipitation at the edge of the forest in the Amazon basin due to an enhancement of prevailing wind resulting from an increased land–sea heat contrast after deforestation ( Ramos da Silva et al. 2008 ). Observational

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