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Abby Stevens, Rebecca Willett, Antonios Mamalakis, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, Alejandro Tejedor, James T. Randerson, Padhraic Smyth, and Stephen Wright

atmosphere. CESM-LENS relies on historical boundary conditions for the period 1920–2005, and the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) is applied as forcing for years 2006–2100. Here we used only archives of simulation output from 1940 to 2005 to build our model covariance matrices, as the focus of our analysis is on improving prediction for the contemporary period. Note that the 40 ensemble members constitute independent but equally probable trajectories of the Earth system with historical

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Clément Guilloteau, Antonios Mamalakis, Lawrence Vulis, Phong V. V. Le, Tryphon T. Georgiou, and Efi Foufoula-Georgiou

interest, exhibiting a plethora of modes caused by different physical processes (e.g., solar forcing, oceanic/atmospheric circulations, land–atmosphere interactions, etc.), and imprinting themselves at various spatial and temporal scales. The accurate identification and modeling of the modes of the climate system is necessary for many key problems in geosciences, such as weather/climate prediction, attribution of extreme events and hazards, and assessment of climate change impacts. The comprehensive

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Stephen E. Lang and Wei-Kuo Tao

added to improve sampling. Figure 2 shows results from the new DYNAMO and GOAmazon simulations, which form the basis for the CSH algorithm’s new LUTs. On average, the model responds well to the forcing, be it fewer large events over ocean (e.g., DYNAMO) or more numerous weaker events over land (e.g., GOAmazon). Including the three new cases, a total of 10 cases (six oceanic and four continental), which are listed in Table 2 , were simulated to provide data for the new LUTs. The simulations all

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