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Lixion A. Avila and Jamie Rhome

incipient cyclones were already close to cooler waters and moving into a more stable environment. This resulted in a relatively high number of weak short-lived cyclones during the season, and contributed to the unusually low seasonal ACE index noted above. A summary of the life cycle of each of the 2007 season’s named tropical cyclones is provided in section 2 . Section 3 provides verification statistics on official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts of these cyclones. 2. Tropical cyclone

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Richard J. Pasch, Eric S. Blake, Lixion A. Avila, John L. Beven, Daniel P. Brown, James L. Franklin, Richard D. Knabb, Michelle M. Mainelli, Jamie R. Rhome, and Stacy R. Stewart

more tropical cyclones during the upper-level divergent phases of the MJO, which provided an environment more conducive for convection. It should be noted, however, that this MJO signal is often not as well defined as it was in 2006, which makes it difficult for forecasters to use such diagrams in real time. A summary of the life cycle of each of the 2006 season’s tropical cyclones is provided in section 2 . Section 3 provides verification statistics on official National Hurricane Center (NHC

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James L. Franklin and Daniel P. Brown

-air observations supplement the satellite and reconnaissance data. In key forecast situations, the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of the storm environment is obtained from dropsondes released during operational “synoptic surveillance” flights of NOAA’s Gulfstream IV jet aircraft ( Aberson and Franklin 1999 ). Several satellite-based technologies play an important role in the analysis of tropical weather systems. Foremost of these is multichannel passive microwave imagery [e.g., from the Tropical

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Richard J. Pasch, Lixion A. Avila, and John L. Guiney

Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) and to the local National Weather Service forecast offices. These include reports of peak wind gusts of 104 kt near North Carolina State Port at 0138 UTC and 100 kt at Wrightsville Beach at 1951 UTC 27 August. Rainfall totals of about 200–280 mm were recorded in portions of eastern North Carolina. Storm tides of 1.5–2.4 m above normal were reported mainly in eastern beaches of Brunswick County, North Carolina, while a storm surge of 1.8 m was reported

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Lixion A. Avila, Richard J. Pasch, John L. Beven II, James L. Franklin, Miles B. Lawrence, and Stacy R. Stewart

at 2200 UTC 25 October. The warning was discontinued at 0900 UTC 26 October. 4. Forecast verification For all operationally designated tropical cyclones in its area of responsibility, the NHC issues an “official” tropical cyclone track (latitude and longitude of the circulation center) and intensity (maximum 1-min wind speed at 10 m above the surface) forecast every 6 h. These forecasts are made for the 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, 72-, 96-, and 120-h periods from the initial synoptic time of the forecast

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Lixion A. Avila, Richard J. Pasch, Jack L. Beven, James L. Franklin, Miles B. Lawrence, Stacy R. Stewart, and Jiann-Gwo Jiing

statistics is included in Table 1 and their tracks are included in Fig. 3 . The official track and intensity forecast errors are included in Tables 2 and 3 . The individual tropical cyclone summaries in the next section are based on the NHC postanalysis. More detailed information on these systems may be found online ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.html ). a. Hurricane Adolph, 25 May–1 June A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on 7 May appears to have been the precursor

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Richard D. Knabb, Lixion A. Avila, John L. Beven, James L. Franklin, Richard J. Pasch, and Stacy R. Stewart

environment more conducive for convection. A summary of the life cycle of each of the 2005 season’s tropical cyclones is provided in section 2 . Section 3 provides verification statistics on official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts of these cyclones. 2. Tropical cyclone summaries The individual cyclone summaries in this section are based on NHC’s poststorm meteorological analyses. These analyses result in the creation of a ‘‘best track’’ database for each cyclone, consisting of 6-hourly

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John L. Beven II and James L. Franklin

Storm Calvin and dissipated 2 days later. Tropical Depression 9-E was observed from 13–15 August. Finally, Tropical Depression 11-E formed on 23 August from a broad low pressure system that likely resulted from a combination of a tropical wave and a background monsoon environment. Winds were near tropical storm force at genesis. However, no further development occurred, and the system dissipated the next day. 4. Forecast verification The Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) issues advisories every 6 h

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James L. Franklin, Lixion A. Avila, John L. Beven II, Miles B. Lawrence, Richard J. Pasch, and Stacy R. Stewart

storms, three fewer than normal, formed during this period. While sea surface temperatures were at or above normal over most of the basin during this time, atmospheric conditions appear to have been less favorable. Figure 2 shows the monthly anomalies of 200–850-mb vertical wind shear for the months of August and September, calculated using twice-daily analyses from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Weather Service's Global Forecast System (GFS) and long-term means

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John L. Beven II, Lixion A. Avila, James L. Franklin, Miles B. Lawrence, Richard J. Pasch, and Stacy R. Stewart

the tropical storms and hurricanes of 2003 along with data sources used in analyzing and tracking them. Section 3 presents a discussion on the verification of NHC official forecasts. 2. Tropical storm and hurricane summaries Individual cyclone summaries are based on “best track” data resulting from the NHC’s post-storm meteorological analyses of all available observations. The best track consists of 6-hourly estimates of the center locations, maximum sustained (1-min average) surface (10 m) wind

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