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Stanley G. Benjamin, John M. Brown, Gilbert Brunet, Peter Lynch, Kazuo Saito, and Thomas W. Schlatter

1. Introduction Weather forecasting has evolved over the past century from being an empirical, analog-based process with little skill to an increasingly automated high-tech enterprise demonstrating tremendous prediction accuracy. This transformation has been enabled by spectacular advances in our ability to observe the atmosphere, by application of rigorous physical principles to understanding atmospheric phenomena, and by the advent and subsequent enormous increase in digital computing

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Harold E. Brooks, Charles A. Doswell III, Xiaoling Zhang, A. M. Alexander Chernokulsky, Eigo Tochimoto, Barry Hanstrum, Ernani de Lima Nascimento, David M. L. Sills, Bogdan Antonescu, and Brad Barrett

s. They continue to evolve world-wide. Hence, forecasters are faced with the dilemma of, for example, differentiating a storm that produces a 2.5-cm hailstone from one that produces a 2.4-cm hailstone. Although such accuracy is well beyond the current state of the science, the science of such storms can be employed to estimate the probability of a storm that would meet or exceed the arbitrary criteria. From the perspective of the modern world, it can be challenging to imagine the state of the

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Sue Ellen Haupt, Branko Kosović, Scott W. McIntosh, Fei Chen, Kathleen Miller, Marshall Shepherd, Marcus Williams, and Sheldon Drobot

processes, it becomes more important to apply these detailed meteorological modeling capabilities. This coupled modeling approach is essential to providing accurate simulations and forecasts for the applications in this chapter: agriculture, wildland fire modeling, and space weather, as well as for a plethora of other applications. Section 2 of this chapter is related to agriculture, food security, and how meteorological and hydrological knowledge is used to enhance production in an effort to help feed

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Sue Ellen Haupt, Robert M. Rauber, Bruce Carmichael, Jason C. Knievel, and James L. Cogan

director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) stated, “I have a very strong feeling that science exists to serve human betterment and improve human welfare” ( NCAR 2018 ). To that end, atmospheric scientists have worked closely with the users who have the need. Both sides have learned to listen to each other and learn how to devise the best ways to create user decision-support tools. In many cases, just having a standard weather forecast is insufficient for the need. It must instead

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Eric G. Hoffman

Abstract

In the last decade, Fred Sanders was often critical of current surface analysis techniques. This led to his promoting the use of surface potential temperatures to distinguish between fronts, baroclinic troughs, and non-frontal baroclinic zones, and to the development of a climatology of surface baroclinic zones. In this paper, criticisms of current surface analysis techniques and the usefulness of surface potential temperature analyses are discussed. Case examples are used to compare potential temperature analyses and current National Centers for Environmental Prediction analyses.

The 1-yr climatology of Sanders and Hoffman is reconstructed using a composite technique. Annual and seasonal mean potential temperature analyses over the continental United States, southern Canada, northern Mexico, and adjacent coastal waters are presented. In addition, gridpoint frequencies of moderate and strong potential temperature gradients are calculated. The results of the mean potential temperature analyses show that moderate and strong surface baroclinic zones are favored along the coastlines and the slopes of the North American cordillera. Additional subsynoptic details, not found in Sanders and Hoffman, are identified. The availability of the composite results allows for the calculation of potential temperature gradient anomalies. It is shown that these anomalies can be used to identify significant frontal baroclinic zones that are associated with weak potential temperature gradients. Together the results and reviews in this paper show that surface potential temperature analyses are a valuable forecasting and analysis tool allowing analysts to distinguish and identify fronts, baroclinic troughs, and nonfrontal baroclinic zones.

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Louis W. Uccellini, Paul J. Kocin, Joseph Sienkiewicz and, Robert Kistler, and Michael Baker

Abstract

Fred Sanders' career extended over 55 yr, touching upon many of the revolutionary transformations in the field of meteorology during that period. In this paper, his contributions to the transformation of synoptic meteorology, his research into the nature of explosive cyclogenesis, and related advances in the ability to predict these storms are reviewed. In addition to this review, the current status of forecasting oceanic cyclones 4.5 days in advance is presented, illustrating the progress that has been made and the challenges that persist, especially for forecasting those extreme extratropical cyclones that are marked by surface wind speeds exceeding hurricane force. Last, Fred Sanders' participation in a forecast for the historic 1947 snowstorm (that produced snowfall amounts in the New York City area that set records at that time) is reviewed along with an attempt to use today's operational global model to simulate this storm using data that were available at the time. The study reveals the predictive limitations involved with this case based on the scarcity of upper-air data in 1947, while confirming Fred Sanders' forecasting skills when dealing with these types of major storm events, even as a young aviation forecaster at New York's LaGuardia Airport.

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Alan R. Moller

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Robert S. Davis

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Steven K. Esbensen, Jan-Hwa Chu, Wen-wen Tung, and Robert G. Fovell

Abstract

This monograph on convection-coupled systems in the tropics was inspired by the life and career of Professor Michio Yanai, whose major contributions to the subject spanned more than five decades. From a distant perspective, Professor Yanai’s career can be understood in the context of Japanese scientists who immigrated to the United States in the decades of the 1950s and 1960s, enriching the meteorological research community in the United States as well as abroad (). A closer look reminds us that the tapestry of scientific progress is created by the contributions of individual scientists with their unique backgrounds, motivations, and talents, and the serendipity of events that shape their lives.

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A. Hollingsworth,, P. Viterbo, and, and A. J. Simmons

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