Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

  • Forecasting x
  • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences x
  • Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment (TCI) x
  • All content x
Clear All
David R. Ryglicki, Daniel Hodyss, and Gregory Rainwater

.1063/1.868929 Courtney , J. B. , and Coauthors , 2019 : Operational perspectives on tropical cyclone intensity change. Part II: Forecasts by operational agencies . Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev. , 8 , 226 – 239 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.003 . 10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.003 Darrigol , O. , and U. Frisch , 2008 : From Newton’s mechanics to Euler’s equations . Physica D , 237 , 1855 – 1869 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2007.08.003 . 10.1016/j.physd.2007.08.003 DeMaria , M. , M. Mainelli

Restricted access
Yi Dai, Sharanya J. Majumdar, and David S. Nolan

understanding the TC resistance to strong environmental shear. By introducing the TCSD, we hope that the outflow can be not only a useful diagnostic to infer the upper-level outflow, but also a nice tool that can be used scientifically and operationally for better understanding and forecasting of TC intensity and structure change. This paper is organized as follows: Section 2 describes the idealized modeling framework and definitions of shear. The main results of the idealized simulations are presented in

Restricted access
Robert G. Nystrom, Fuqing Zhang, Erin B. Munsell, Scott A. Braun, Jason A. Sippel, Yonghui Weng, and Kerry Emanuel

1. Introduction Tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts have improved substantially over the past few decades. The 48-h track errors in the North Atlantic today have been reduced by 50% over the last 15 years ( Cangialosi and Franklin 2016 ). While these improvements in the forecast tracks generally hold, Hurricane Joaquin (2015) presents an unusual case in which current numerical weather prediction models struggled with the track forecast. The initial poor track forecast of Joaquin resulted in

Full access
Jonathan Martinez, Michael M. Bell, Robert F. Rogers, and James D. Doyle

1. Introduction Accurate forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes remain one of the most difficult weather predictions, even for short lead times. This is in part due to multiscale interactions, which require operational forecast models to precisely capture the evolution of the atmosphere over a vast range of scales in the vicinity of a TC. DeMaria et al. (2014) demonstrated that although intensity forecast errors have not improved as much as track forecast errors over the past

Full access
Benjamin C. Trabing, Michael M. Bell, and Bonnie R. Brown

attributed this to the thermal efficiency change. Wang et al. (2014) performed a similar analysis in three dimensions using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW; Skamarock et al. 2008 ) to simulate how tropopause temperatures affect the intensity of TCs on both short and long time scales in RCE. The maximum intensity of their 3D TCs was found to increase by ~0.5 m s −1 K −1 cooling on both short and long time scales but no structural difference was

Full access
William A. Komaromi and James D. Doyle

between the northward- versus southward-directed outflow between the trough and the no-trough simulations but only at a single forecast time. Radius–time Hovmöller diagrams demonstrate that 200–100-hPa υ r is consistently stronger in the southern semicircle ( Fig. 8c ) than in the northern semicircle ( Fig. 8a ) throughout the forecast. The opposite relationship is observed in the trough simulation ( Figs. 8b,d ). Note the strong burst of υ r in the northern semicircle from 50- to 200-km radius

Full access
Patrick Duran and John Molinari

Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG) longwave and shortwave schemes ( Iacono et al. 2008 ). The initial environmental temperature and humidity field was horizontally homogeneous and determined by averaging all Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) grid points within 100 km of Patricia’s center of circulation at 1800 UTC 21 October 2015. The balanced vortex described in Rotunno and Emanuel [1987 , their Eq. (37)] was used to initialize the wind field, setting all parameters equal to the values used

Full access
Yi Dai, Sharanya J. Majumdar, and David S. Nolan

vapor satellite imagery, are used to study Hurricanes Edouard (2014) and Bill (2009). The AMV images are collected from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. This study also makes use of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim; Dee et al. 2011 ) data to show upper-level flow features. The horizontal grid spacing of the ERA-Interim data is about 0.7° × 0.7°, which is sufficient

Full access