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Robert Gall, James Franklin, Frank Marks, Edward N. Rappaport, and Frederick Toepfer

), and Ike (2008). In 2005 alone, 27 Atlantic systems reached tropical storm status, far surpassing the previous record of 21. The heightened activity brought an increased awareness of the dangers from tropical cyclones and led to a number of studies concerning the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) ability to forecast hurricanes. The additional attention on the nation's hurricane warning program provided opportunities to give visibility to and initiate actions on intensity

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Jason M. Cordeira, F. Martin Ralph, Andrew Martin, Natalie Gaggini, J. Ryan Spackman, Paul J. Neiman, Jonathan J. Rutz, and Roger Pierce

.g., Dettinger et al. 2011 ). In fact, California’s annual precipitation varies far more than most of the country, and 85% of the variance in annual precipitation in northern California results from annual variations in the top 5% wettest days per year, which are mostly attributed to water vapor flux along landfalling ARs ( Dettinger and Cayan 2014 ). The purpose of this paper is to highlight different tools that were developed and used to analyze and forecast the location, intensity, duration, and potential

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James Wilczak, Cathy Finley, Jeff Freedman, Joel Cline, Laura Bianco, Joseph Olson, Irina Djalalova, Lindsay Sheridan, Mark Ahlstrom, John Manobianco, John Zack, Jacob R. Carley, Stan Benjamin, Richard Coulter, Larry K. Berg, Jeffrey Mirocha, Kirk Clawson, Edward Natenberg, and Melinda Marquis

An observational, data assimilation, and modeling study demonstrates improvements in the accuracy of wind forecasts for wind energy. Wind power is a variable energy source, dependent on weather conditions. Electricgrid operators keep the grid stable by balancing variable generation resources (e.g., wind and solar) and conventional generation (e.g., coal, gas, and nuclear) with energy demand. Having accurate advance knowledge of the amount of wind power available through reliable weather

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Rosalind Cornforth, Douglas J. Parker, Mariane Diop-Kane, Andreas H. Fink, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Arlene Laing, Ernest Afiesimama, Jim Caughey, Aida Diongue-Niang, Abdou Kassimou, Peter Lamb, Benjamin Lamptey, Zilore Mumba, Ifeanyi Nnodu, Jerome Omotosho, Steve Palmer, Patrick Parrish, Leon-Guy Razafindrakoto, Wassila Thiaw, Chris Thorncroft, and Adrian Tompkins

Meteorology of Tropical West Africa: The Forecasters’ Handbook is set to change the way forecasters, researchers, and students learn about tropical meteorology and will serve to drive demand for new forecasting tools. Daily weather patterns directly influence human survival in Africa more so than in any other well-populated continent. Furthermore, West Africa currently exhibits one of the largest population growths on Earth, with many emerging megacities that are prone to urban flooding from

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L. Magnusson, J.-R. Bidlot, M. Bonavita, A. R. Brown, P. A. Browne, G. De Chiara, M. Dahoui, S. T. K. Lang, T. McNally, K. S. Mogensen, F. Pappenberger, F. Prates, F. Rabier, D. S. Richardson, F. Vitart, and S. Malardel

ECMWF global forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks have improved greatly in the past decades, and addressing the challenge of reliable intensity forecasts is an active research area. Tropical cyclones are some of the most devastating natural hazards. They usually impact a large area, causing damage through strong winds and heavy rain. They cause even greater harm through damage from storm surges, flooding, landslides, or tornadoes. To reduce this damage, early and reliable warnings are needed

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Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt, Armel Oumbe, Angela Benedetti, and Jean-Jacques Morcrette

Extending numerical weather forecasting with chemical weather modeling will improve prediction of aerosol extinction and direct irradiance at the surface—and thus increase reliability of solar energy. USER REQUIREMENTS FROM THE SOLAR SECTOR. Concentrating solar power (CSP) systems use lenses or mirrors and tracking systems to focus a large area of sunlight onto a small area. A working fluid is heated by the concentrated sunlight, and this thermal energy can be stored or immediately used to

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Antje Weisheimer, Daniel J. Befort, Dave MacLeod, Tim Palmer, Chris O’Reilly, and Kristian Strømmen

Forecasts of seasonal climate anomalies using physically based global circulation models are routinely made at many operational meteorological centers around the world. Slow variations in the lower boundary forcing of the atmosphere due to the dynamics of the oceans and the hydrology of the landmasses, together with stratospheric variability, sea ice anomalies, and volcanic eruptions, are sources of predictability on seasonal time scales. The single most important of these factors is variations

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Thomas Jones, Patrick Skinner, Nusrat Yussouf, Kent Knopfmeier, Anthony Reinhart, and David Dowell

W o F SYSTEM AND TC OVERVIEWS. Initial Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) systems have been designed for the prediction of convection driven by overland synoptic and mesoscale forcing; however, the overall concept is also applicable to landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). The WoF system known as the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles (NEWS-e) was tested retrospectively during the landfalling phases of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey and used to generate

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R. J. Ronda, G. J. Steeneveld, B. G. Heusinkveld, J. J. Attema, and A. A. M. Holtslag

heat waves relies on early warning systems ( Kovats and Bickler 2012 ; McGregor 2015 ), which in turn depend on accurate weather forecasts ( Pappenberger et al. 2015 ). Identified as “a quiet revolution” by Bauer et al. (2015) , the progress made in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has led to the development of systems that forecast operationally high-impact weather events up to about 1–2 weeks ahead of time on regional spatial scales ranging from a few kilometers to a few dozen kilometers

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Julie Demargne, Limin Wu, Satish K. Regonda, James D. Brown, Haksu Lee, Minxue He, Dong-Jun Seo, Robert Hartman, Henry D. Herr, Mark Fresch, John Schaake, and Yuejian Zhu

HEFS extends hydrologic ensemble services from 6-hour to year-ahead forecasts and includes additional weather and climate information as well as improved quantification of major uncertainties. As no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty ( National Research Council of the National Academies 2006 ), it is necessary, for both atmospheric and hydrologic predictions, to quantify and propagate uncertainty from various sources in the forecasting system. For informed risk

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