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Philip L. Chaney and Greg S. Weaver

.7%), Arkansas (12.7%), Kentucky (12.2%), and Tennessee (10.2%). The National Weather Service Forecast Office at Nashville identified 13 tornadoes in its region during the Super Tuesday tornado outbreak ( NWS 2008 , 2009 ) and issued 26 tornado warnings from 1930 Central Standard Time (CST) 5 February 2009 to 0159 CST 6 February 2009 (J. Orchanian, NWS Nashville, 2008, personal communication). Macon County was issued a tornado watch at 2020 CST, followed by a tornado warning at 2206 CST. The tornado that

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David M. Schultz, Eve C. Gruntfest, Mary H. Hayden, Charles C. Benight, Sheldon Drobot, and Lindsey R. Barnes

1. Introduction Weather forecasters and emergency managers aim to provide accurate and timely warnings for hazardous weather so that people take the appropriate actions to protect life and property. Common assumptions are that people receive this information, understand it, know what to do, and, subsequently, make the best decisions (e.g., Doswell 2005 ; Parker et al. 2009 ). The goal of the Warning Project ( Benight et al. 2007 ; Drobot et al. 2007 ; Hayden et al. 2007 ) was to provide

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S. Hoekstra, K. Klockow, R. Riley, J. Brotzge, H. Brooks, and S. Erickson

1. Introduction Tornado prediction capabilities have advanced significantly over the past few decades. The first tornado forecasts (the term “warning” had not yet been used) were issued in 1948 ( Doswell et al. 1999 ). By 1978, the average tornado warning lead time was 3 min and the probability of detection was 22%. Twenty years later there was a 65% probability of tornado detection with a 13-min lead time on average ( Golden and Adams 2000 ); some of the improvement was attributed to the

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Kevin M. Simmons and Daniel Sutter

FAR and both tornado fatalities and injuries. We define FARs based on three different geographies [states, NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFO), and television markets] and two time horizons (the past year and past two years). The results are remarkably consistent across the various definitions of FAR: a one-standard-deviation (1 std dev) increase in the FAR increases expected fatalities by between 12% and 29% and expected injuries by between 14% and 32%. The reduction in the national FAR between

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Alan W. Black and Walker S. Ashley

responsible for taking action ( Belville 1987 ). Warning performance improved greatly between the 1980s and early 1990s because of advances in radar technologies, forecasting methods, and meteorological knowledge ( Brooks 2004 ). Brotzge and Erickson (2010) found that 73.6% of tornadoes in the 2000–04 period were associated with a NWS warning. Simmons and Sutter (2005) established that after the installation of the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D), the percentage of tornadoes warned

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Kevin D. Ash, Ronald L. Schumann III, and Gregg C. Bowser

1. Introduction Over the past century, annual U.S. tornado deaths have declined because of advancements in the monitoring and forecasting of meteorological phenomena, as well as the ability to disseminate warning information via multiple media platforms ( Ashley 2007 ; Simmons and Sutter 2005 , 2008 ). Yet, research from several recent tornado events suggests that even though warning messages are widely broadcast and received, the ways in which people interpret and act upon these warnings may

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Mark A. Casteel and Joe R. Downing

instance, Nadav-Greenberg et al. (2008) found that different types of graphics depicting wind speed uncertainty produced differential effects among novice weather forecasters' (undergraduate meteorology students) reading accuracy, ratings of uncertainty, wind speed forecasts, and their likelihood of posting a high-wind warning. Generally speaking, Nadav-Greenberg et al. (2008) found that box plots produced superior performance compared to two different types of color-coded charts. Similarly

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Daniel Sutter and Somer Erickson

value of $4.79 h −1 or 27% of the hourly wage. 7 c. Area-warned reduction with SBW We use a 75% reduction in the early testing of SBW as an upper bound. In the 5–6 February 2008 tornado outbreak, the reduction for the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS Weather Forecast Office (WFO) relative to county warnings was 56.9%, which was the lowest of the six WFOs evaluated ( NWS 2009 ). We use 55% as a lower bound for the area reduction. d. Response rate outside of the polygon The surveys found response rates from 29

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Robert Drost

1. Introduction The National Weather Service (NWS) is tasked with providing the public with information about marine and atmospheric conditions throughout the United States and its territories. One specific role of the NWS is the forecasting of severe weather and the administration of warnings in “the United States, its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property” (from the official NWS Mission Statement; see http

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Richard W. Dixon and Todd W. Moore

losses) were responsible for an average annual loss of $982 million in 2006 dollars ( Changnon 2009 ). Even with increased understanding and advances in technology, which have increased our ability to spot tornado signatures and have led to improved forecasting and warning ( National Academy of Sciences 2002 ), tornado outbreaks such as those experienced in April and May 2011 serve as stark reminders of the potential for tornadoes to produce extensive economic and human loss. Tornado impacts have the

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