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Huijun Wang and Ke Fan

tier” approaches have been applied from the very beginning of dynamical seasonal climate prediction. In these models, the predictions are made by the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with prescribed (or forecasted) sea surface temperatures (SST) and other boundary conditions. Multimodel superensemble predictions have been used in climate prediction to produce more reliable probability forecasts in recent years ( Krishnamurti et al. 1999 ; Palmer 2001 ). Two well-known projects

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Howard B. Bluestein

://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2007/day1otlk_20070504_1200.html ) and a tornado watch was issued almost 3 h before the event (information online at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2007/ww0227.html )], the details of the storm’s evolution were not easily forecasted. Since the Greensburg event was associated with prolific, tornado-producing, parent supercells, it is important to analyze the details of this event to learn how we can better forecast future similar events and to identify specific gaps in our fundamental

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Jianhua Sun and Sixiong Zhao

statistics (MOS), cluster diagnosis of synoptic weather types or patterns] were developed for improving the short-term forecasts of FZRA. Czys et al. (1996) derived a nondimensional parameter (relevant to the residence time of the ice particles) to enhance the diagnosis of conditions favorable for the occurrence of FZRA and IPE. Bocchieri (1980) used the regression method on radiosonde observations to estimate the occurrence probability in order to diagnose winter precipitation type. (b

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M. Issa Lélé and Peter J. Lamb

University of Oklahoma, and the constructive formal review of Professor Sharon E. Nicholson (The Florida State University). The expert production of the manuscript at CIMMS by Ms. Luwanda Byrd was appreciated greatly. Additional funding was provided by NOAA Grant NA17RJ1227 through CIMMS. REFERENCES Adejuwon , J. O. , and T. O. Odekunle , 2004 : Skill assessment of the existing capacity for extended-range weather forecasting in Nigeria. Int. J. Climatol. , 24 , 1249 – 1265 . Bell , M. A. , and

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Rong-Hua Zhang and Antonio J. Busalacchi

responses to TIW-induced SST forcing are underestimated by about a factor of 2 as indicated by the slopes. Nevertheless, the simulation skill from this empirical model is still comparable to that represented in the high horizontal resolution European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF) operational model (e.g., Chelton et al. 2005 ). Similarly, the binned scatterplots of the divergence and curl perturbations are illustrated in Fig. 14b . Again, the estimated slopes are about half of those

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Hamish A. Ramsay, Lance M. Leslie, and Jeffrey D. Kepert

tropical cyclones in vertical shear flow: Vortex resiliency. J. Atmos. Sci. , 61 , 3 – 22 . Reisner , J. , R. M. Rasmussen , and R. T. Bruintjes , 1998 : Explicit forecasting of supercooled liquid water in winter storms using the MM5 mesoscale model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 124 , 1071 – 1107 . Rogers , R. , S. Chen , J. Tenerelli , and H. Willoughby , 2003 : A numerical study of the impact of vertical shear on the distribution of rainfall in Hurricane Bonnie (1998

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