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Shoshiro Minobe, Masato Miyashita, Akira Kuwano-Yoshida, Hiroki Tokinaga, and Shang-Ping Xie

presents conclusions and a discussion. 2. Data a. Operational analysis and reanalysis data We use the monthly fields on a 0.5° × 0.5° grid of operational analysis and the associated forecast fields provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) from January 2002 to February 2006, the same period as in Minobe et al. (2008) . The operational atmospheric model uses a spectral dynamical core with TL511 resolution (i.e., triangular truncation at total wavenumber 511 with a

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Nicholas A. Bond, Meghan F. Cronin, and Matthew Garvert

et al. (2008) and Torn and Hakim (2009) . The former study investigated the downstream predictability using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system; the latter study used an ensemble of NWP model simulations to explore the sensitivity of the modeled storm to initial conditions during the early portion of its extratropical phase. The standard deviations in 500-hPa geopotential height from these studies, in the vicinity of Tokage and downstream

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Haiming Xu, Hiroki Tokinaga, and Shang-Ping Xie

the reduced dynamical effects allow surface flux to dominate SST variability ( Alexander et al. 1999 ; Tomita et al. 2002 ; Cassou et al. 2007 ). The presence or absence of the SST anomaly associated with this large meander explains why the atmospheric effects are strong during winter and early spring and weak during summer. 4. Modeling a. Model and experimental design We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (version 3.0.1; Skamarock et al. 2005 ) to examine the large meander

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Jeffrey Shaman, R. M. Samelson, and Eric Skyllingstad

latent heat fluxes within the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and OAFlux records ( Figs. 6 and 7 ). For datasets based primarily on shipboard measurements, such as the NOCS- and COADS-derived, the potential sampling bias against high flux event datasets within the CLIMODE region is large given that, coming off the continent as they do, many of these storms are well forecast. Indeed, we examined the raw 6-hourly ICOADS data for differences in the number of observations per day within the CLIMODE region during

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Jianping Li, Zhiwei Wu, Zhihong Jiang, and Jinhai He

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data ( Uppala et al. 2005 ) and ERA-interim reanalysis datasets; and 4) the improved extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST), version 2 (ERSST V2; Smith and Reynolds 2004 ). Global-warming A1B stabilization experiments (with an atmospheric CO 2 concentration of 720 ppm) for the twenty-first century (2000–99) used in this study are conducted by 14 state-of-the-art ocean–atmosphere general circulation models that

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Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, and Randal Koster

and to address the issue of the model dependence in representing the linkages between the leading SST patterns and U.S. drought. The participating AGCMs are the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) version 1 AGCM at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) ( Bacmeister et al. 2000 ); the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) ( Campana and Caplan 2005 ); the National Center for

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Akira Kuwano-Yoshida, Shoshiro Minobe, and Shang-Ping Xie

updraft anchored over the surface convergence extends to the upper troposphere based on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) observations and an atmospheric analysis product from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In an AGCM with 50-km horizontal resolution, the Gulf Stream–trapped structures of surface wind convergence, precipitation, and cyclone activity disappear when the SST data are smoothed. Their linear model response to diabatic heating over the Gulf Stream indicates

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Masanori Konda, Hiroshi Ichikawa, Hiroyuki Tomita, and Meghan F. Cronin

, 2205 – 2231 . Alexander , M. A. , L. Matrosova , C. Penland , J. D. Scott , and P. Chang , 2008 : Forecasting Pacific SSTs: Linear inverse model predictions of the PDO. J. Climate , 21 , 385 – 402 . Bond , N. A. , and M. F. Cronin , 2008 : Regional weather patterns during anomalous air–sea fluxes at the Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO). J. Climate , 21 , 1680 – 1697 . Bond , N. A. , J. E. Overland , M. Spillane , and P. Stabeno , 2003 : Recent shifts in

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Terrence M. Joyce, Young-Oh Kwon, and Lisan Yu

-derived fields and 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalyses that have been optimally combined using the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) 3.0 bulk flux algorithm. The OAFlux latent and sensible heat flux estimates are unbiased, and the root-mean-square (rms) difference is less than 8 W m −2 when compared with daily flux time series

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James F. Booth, Lu Anne Thompson, Jérôme Patoux, Kathryn A. Kelly, and Suzanne Dickinson

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM; Simpson et al. 1996 ), and free-tropospheric winds from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses Simmons and Gibson (2000) , Minobe et al. show that the SST has a significant influence on the tropospheric wind fields and precipitation patterns. The annually averaged rain pattern responds to changes in the location of the Gulf Stream in their 50-km-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) runs. The SST also

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