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Roland J. Viger, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, John W. Jones, and Gary R. Buell

( Tang et al. 2005 ; Choi and Deal 2008 ), coastal New England ( Schiff and Benoit 2007 ), Pacific Northwest ( Cuo et al. 2008 ), and Southeast ( Ferguson and Suckling 1990 ). Many of these have focused on water, habitat, and other ecological quality factors (e.g., Schueler et al. 2009 ; Brabec 2009 ; Walsh et al. 2009 ; Nelson et al. 2009 ). GCM forecasts (e.g., Solomon et al. 2007 ) are increasingly available for use as input to hydrologic models. A sufficiently large number of methods for

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David M. Bjerklie, Thomas J. Trombley, and Roland J. Viger

requires the development of climatic forecasts, usually from general circulation models (GCMs). Past station-based observations and GCM projections indicate that precipitation is increasing in the conterminous United States ( Karl and Knight 1998 ; Groisman et al. 2005 ). These trends have also been noted in more localized studies in parts of New England ( Miller et al. 2002 ) and New York State ( Burns et al. 2007 ). Increases in precipitation occurring around 1970 also coincide with changes in the

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John F. Walker, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Michael D. Dettinger

discharge for each year in each simulation. For a particular simulation period, this results in an m × n matrix containing the ensemble of model forecasts, representing m years of annual maximum daily discharges (11 years) and n GCM–scenario combinations (15 members). A log transformation of the annual maximum discharges was used to ensure that discharges generated by the resampling approach would be nonnegative. Thus, the term x i , j represents the natural log of the maximum daily

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Daniel E. Christiansen, Steven L. Markstrom, and Lauren E. Hay

agricultural production and water supply in the study basins. An increase in temperature has the potential to impact agricultural production due to the northern migration of competing plants and an increase in insects that is expected to accompany the forecast climate changes ( Janetos et al. 2008 ). In the fire-prone areas of the Rockies and Sierra Nevada study basins, an increase in GSL can cause an increase in tree mortality, which can increase the fuel sources for potential wildfires ( Ryan et al. 2008

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Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Christian Ward-Garrison

precipitation forecasts . J. Hydrol. , 239 , 306 – 337 . Arnell , N. W. , 2003a : Effects of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios on river runoff: A global perspective . Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. , 7 , 619 – 641 . Arnell , N. W. , 2003b : Relative effects of multi-decadal climatic variability and changes in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: Future streamflows in Britain . J. Hydrol. , 270 , 195 – 213 . Arnell , N. W. , and N. S. Reynard , 1996 : The effects of climate

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John Risley, Hamid Moradkhani, Lauren Hay, and Steve Markstrom

: Long-lead water supply forecast using large-scale climate predictors and independent component analysis . J. Hydrol. Eng. , 15 , 744 – 762 , doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000246 . Morrison , J. , M. C. Quick , and M. G. Foreman , 2002 : Climate change in the Fraser River watershed: Flow and temperature projections . J. Hydrol. , 263 , 230 – 244 . Najafi , M. , H. Moradkhani , and S. Wherry , 2010 : Statistical downscaling of precipitation using machine learning with

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Mark C. Mastin, Katherine J. Chase, and R. W. Dudley

). The 1 March SWE and depth has been measured at selected snow course sites in Maine since the early part of the twentieth century to aid in emergency-management flood forecasting and reservoir operation management ( Hodgkins et al. 2005b ). For the remainder of this paper, references to spring snow-covered area (SCA) and SWE refer to values on 1 April for the western basins and 1 March for the Cathance River basin in Maine. The spring simulated snowpack is examined for three climate-change emission

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