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Huijun Wang and Ke Fan

tier” approaches have been applied from the very beginning of dynamical seasonal climate prediction. In these models, the predictions are made by the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with prescribed (or forecasted) sea surface temperatures (SST) and other boundary conditions. Multimodel superensemble predictions have been used in climate prediction to produce more reliable probability forecasts in recent years ( Krishnamurti et al. 1999 ; Palmer 2001 ). Two well-known projects

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Howard B. Bluestein

. , Klimowski B. A. , Zeitler J. W. , Thompson R. L. , and Weisman M. L. , 2000 : Predicting supercell motion using a new hodograph technique. Wea. Forecasting , 15 , 61 – 79 . 10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0061:PSMUAN>2.0.CO;2 Crawford, T. M. , and Bluestein H. B. , 1997 : Characteristics of dryline passage during COPS-91. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 125 , 463 – 477 . 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0463:CODPDC>2.0.CO;2 Dowell, D. C. , and Bluestein H. B. , 2002a : The 8 June 1995 McLean, Texas

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Hamish A. Ramsay, Lance M. Leslie, and Jeffrey D. Kepert

maxima in low-level reflectivity (height ∼1500 m) on the northern side of well-defined eyewall (not shown). This article is organized as follows: section 2 describes in detail the model configurations and numerical experiments. The results are presented in section 3 , and section 4 provides a discussion and summary of our findings. 2. Description of numerical experiments and techniques The primary simulations were carried out with version 3.7 of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University

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Rong-Hua Zhang and Antonio J. Busalacchi

singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis technique to derive a nonlocal empirical feedback model for atmospheric surface wind stress responses to TIW-induced SST forcing, an approach that has been successfully used in large-scale air–sea modeling studies (e.g., Bretherton et al. 1992 ; Barnett et al. 1993 ; Syu et al. 1995 ; Chang et al. 2001 ; Zhang and Zebiak 2004 ; Zhang et al. 2003 , 2006 ). The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 briefly describes the satellite data and section 3

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