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Julia H. Keller, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, Heather M. Archambault, Lance Bosart, James D. Doyle, Jenni L. Evans, Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., Kyle Griffin, Patrick A. Harr, Naoko Kitabatake, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, Florian Pantillon, Julian F. Quinting, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Ryan D. Torn, and Fuqing Zhang

research on the representation of model errors arising from diabatic processes using techniques such as stochastic physics. The research summarized in this review primarily focused on assessing the impact of ET on the short-to-medium-range forecast horizon. Preliminary results reveal a statistically significant correlation between monthly mean values of selected teleconnection indices and ET event counts, as well as significant departures from climatology on the subseasonal to seasonal time scale in

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Volkmar Wirth, Michael Riemer, Edmund K. M. Chang, and Olivia Martius

to surface weather that falls into the tail(s) of the respective local distribution (e.g., precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile). To the extent that weather events inherit predictability from larger-scale dynamical features such as RWPs ( Anthes et al. 1985 ), a better understanding of the RWPs may help to improve the weather forecast, and this is particularly relevant in case of extreme weather. An example is the episode in August 2002, when a quasi-stationary low pressure system over

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Hilke S. Lentink, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, and Sarah C. Jones

, and R. L. Elsberry , 2000 : Extratropical transition of western North Pacific tropical cyclones: An overview and conceptual model of the transformation stage . Wea. Forecasting , 15 , 373 – 395 ,<0373:ETOWNP>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0373:ETOWNP>2.0.CO;2 Kossin , J. P. , and C. S. Velden , 2004 : A pronounced bias in tropical cyclone minimum sea level pressure estimation based on the Dvorak technique . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 132

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Gabriel Wolf and Volkmar Wirth

wave breaking toward the end of the life cycle resulted in the formation of a cutoff cyclone over Europe, which led to the heavy precipitation event. The rain was poorly forecast by the operational centers even on the relatively short time scale of a few days ( Grazzini and van der Grijn 2002 ). Assuming that large-scale and long-lived dynamical features should generally be predictable on a time scale longer than just a few days, this suggest that there may be room for improvements concerning the

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