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Erin B. Munsell, Jason A. Sippel, Scott A. Braun, Yonghui Weng, and Fuqing Zhang

1. Introduction This study examines sources of forecast uncertainty and error for Hurricane Nadine, a long-lived North Atlantic tropical cyclone that occurred in 2012. Simulations initialized at 0000 UTC 20 September 2012 with a convection-permitting hurricane forecast and analysis system [the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), collectively WRF-EnKF] are examined to better understand the large forecast uncertainties and errors that occurred during

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Erin B. Munsell, Fuqing Zhang, Scott A. Braun, Jason A. Sippel, and Anthony C. Didlake

structure throughout the troposphere and lower stratosphere. The overall goal of this study is to investigate the evolution of the inner-core temperature structure of Edouard prior to and throughout its period of significant intensification by using both the unusual variety of observations and a 60-member convection-permitting ensemble simulation generated by the Pennsylvania State University (PSU) real-time Atlantic hurricane analysis and forecast system. In particular, the ensemble simulation provides

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Anthony C. Didlake Jr., Gerald M. Heymsfield, Paul D. Reasor, and Stephen R. Guimond

Hurricane Gonzalo’s life cycle. Sections 4 through 7 examine the data from the four aircraft missions over two days. Section 8 discusses the results in the context of previous studies and section 9 presents the conclusions from the current study. 2. Data and methodology The airborne radar data analyzed in this study were obtained during three different field campaigns in 2014. As part of NOAA’s Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX), the NOAA P3 N43 aircraft was deployed into Gonzalo each day

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Robert F. Rogers, Jun A. Zhang, Jonathan Zawislak, Haiyan Jiang, George R. Alvey III, Edward J. Zipser, and Stephanie N. Stevenson

1. Introduction This study continues an examination of the intensity change of Hurricane Edouard (2014), a storm in which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WP-3D and G-IV, as well as National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) unmanned Global Hawk, provided detailed measurements of the environment and inner core over several days of its life cycle as part of the NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX; Rogers et al. 2013a ) and NASA Hurricane Severe Storm

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William A. Komaromi and James D. Doyle

13 km out to a radius of 100 km from high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations, and demonstrate a reduction of I in the TC core and moat region along with an increase in I outside of the primary eyewall during secondary eyewall formation. However, they do not include the outflow region in their analyses. As is the case with outflow, the TC warm core has traditionally been infrequently documented by in situ observations because of its combination of high altitude

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