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Philip T. Bergmaier and Bart Geerts

of the Great Salt Lake: Overview and forecast problems . Wea. Forecasting , 8 , 181 – 193 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<0181:TLEOTG>2.0.CO;2 . Chang , S. , and R. R. Braham Jr. , 1991 : Observational study of the development of a snow producing convective internal boundary layer over Lake Michigan . J. Atmos. Sci. , 48 , 2265 – 2279 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<2265:OSOACI>2.0.CO;2 . Damiani , R. , and S. Haimov , 2006 : A high-resolution dual-Doppler technique for

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Leah S. Campbell, W. James Steenburgh, Peter G. Veals, Theodore W. Letcher, and Justin R. Minder

and automated precipitation gauge measurements of 6-h accumulated LPE at SC and NR ( Fig. 2 ). Although the manual measurements provide greater accuracy, they lack temporal resolution. As an alternative, we implement a technique described by Wüest et al. (2010) to disaggregate the 6-h manual LPE measurements into shorter intervals using high-frequency LPE estimates derived from ~5- to 6-min 0.5° KTYX radar scans. Fig . 2. Observed total snow depth (cm, blue line), automated 6-h interval snow

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Leah S. Campbell and W. James Steenburgh

1. Introduction Lake-effect snowstorms generated over the Great Lakes of North America and other bodies of water can produce intense, extremely localized snowfall (e.g., Andersson and Nilsson 1990 ; Steenburgh et al. 2000 ; Eito et al. 2005 ; Laird et al. 2009 ; Kindap 2010 ). Forecasters still struggle, however, to accurately predict the timing and location of the heaviest snowfall during lake-effect events, which disrupt local and regional transportation, education, utilities, and

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Philip T. Bergmaier, Bart Geerts, Leah S. Campbell, and W. James Steenburgh

within the LLAP band (see section 4 ). b. Dual-Doppler synthesis Radial velocities from the two downward-pointing WCR beams, oriented ~30° apart, can be utilized to obtain the 2D wind field in a quasi-vertical plane below the aircraft via DD synthesis ( Leon et al. 2006 ). The Leon et al. (2006) DD synthesis technique was further refined by Damiani and Haimov (2006) , whose software has been used in this study and in many others (e.g., Geerts et al. 2006 , 2011 , 2015 ; Yang and Geerts 2006

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Peter G. Veals, W. James Steenburgh, and Leah S. Campbell

and Kristovich 2002 ). The strength of the fluxes and height of the cap in turn affect the behavior and intensity of the lake-effect convection. Larger fluxes and a higher cap enable deeper, stronger convection and greater LPE downwind of the lake (e.g., Braham 1983 ; Niziol 1987 ; Hjelmfelt 1990 ; Byrd et al. 1991 ; Smith and Boris 2017 ). For operational forecasting, the potential for boundary layer growth and lake-effect convection is often assessed using estimates of the lake

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Jake P. Mulholland, Jeffrey Frame, Stephen W. Nesbitt, Scott M. Steiger, Karen A. Kosiba, and Joshua Wurman

, horizontal divergence, and stretching should be interpreted cautiously, however. c. Weather Research and Forecasting Model specifications A Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulation using the Advanced Research core (WRF-ARW; version 3.7.1) was conducted for this case. The innermost grid has a horizontal resolution of 333 m (258 km × 147 km) and is nested within 1-km (636 km × 438 km) and 3-km (1335 km × 882 km) grids ( Fig. 2 ). The outermost domain (3-km horizontal resolution) was

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