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Sean Stelten and William A. Gallus Jr.

can threaten public safety and property with high winds, hail, flooding, and occasionally tornadoes, despite their helpful role as the primary producer of warm season precipitation in the central United States ( Maddox et al. 1979 ; Maddox 1980 ; Fritsch et al. 1986 ; Rochette and Moore 1996 ). Thus, correctly predicting the initiation of MCSs and other less organized convection is an integral part of forecasting for the Great Plains. Prediction of the CI that leads to nighttime convection is

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Aaron Johnson and Xuguang Wang

goals of PECAN was to improve the prediction of nocturnal CI, nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), atmospheric bores, and nocturnal LLJs “with a particular focus on the next generation convective-permitting models and advanced assimilation techniques” ( Geerts et al. 2017 ). Much of the literature on model configurations for predicting convection in the Great Plains focuses primarily on daytime convection or discusses only the forecast lead time, with little or no mention of the

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Aaron Johnson, Xuguang Wang, and Samuel Degelia

) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system . Tellus , 60A , 62 – 79 , doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00273.x . 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00273.x Wheatley , D. M. , N. Yussouf , and D. J. Stensrud , 2014 : Ensemble Kalman filter analyses and forecasts of a severe mesoscale convective system using different choices of microphysics schemes . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 142 , 3243 – 3263 , doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00260.1 . 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00260.1 Wheatley , D. M. , K. H. Knopfmeier , T. A

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Jonathan E. Thielen and William A. Gallus Jr.

. E. Ebert , 2006 : The use of a modified Ebert–McBride technique to evaluate mesoscale model QPF as a function of convective system morphology during IHOP 2002 . Wea. Forecasting , 21 , 288 – 306 , . 10.1175/WAF918.1 Grasso , L. , D. T. Lindsey , K.-S. Sunny Lim , A. Clark , D. Bikos , and S. R. Dembek , 2014 : Evaluation of and suggested improvements to the wsm6 microphysics in WRF-ARW using synthetic and observed GOES-13 imagery . Mon. Wea. Rev

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