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Eric F. Wood, Siegfried D. Schubert, Andrew W. Wood, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Kingtse C. Mo, Annarita Mariotti, and Roger S. Pulwarty

temperature forecasts initialized in early May 2012 from the NMME, including NOAA’s operational Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2; Saha et al. 2010 ). Most NMME models predicted a precipitation and temperature anomaly in the central United States, but with marked intermodel variability in their extent, location, and intensity. For some other regions (e.g., the wet and cool Pacific Northwest), the observed anomalies were absent in virtually all model predictions. Fig . 1. (left) May

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