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Hailong Liu, Chunzai Wang, Sang-Ki Lee, and David Enfield

Lee (2005) showed that the AWP variation is largely forced by shortwave radiation while latent heat flux plays a secondary role, particularly during the AWP decay phase. This seasonal cycle in many of the CMIP3 models has a significant cold bias in the AWP region ( Chang et al. 2007 , 2008 ; Richter and Xie 2008 ; Misra et al. 2009 ; Richter et al. 2012 ; LWLE12 ). Large and Danabasoglu (2006) and Chang et al. (2007) both pointed out that the North Atlantic subtropical high and

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Eric D. Maloney, Suzana J. Camargo, Edmund Chang, Brian Colle, Rong Fu, Kerrie L. Geil, Qi Hu, Xianan Jiang, Nathaniel Johnson, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, James Kinter, Benjamin Kirtman, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Kelly Lombardo, Lindsey N. Long, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, Kingtse C. Mo, J. David Neelin, Zaitao Pan, Richard Seager, Yolande Serra, Anji Seth, Justin Sheffield, Julienne Stroeve, Jeanne Thibeault, Shang-Ping Xie, Chunzai Wang, Bruce Wyman, and Ming Zhao

and Robbins 2011 ; Wehner et al. 2011 ). A general increase in heat waves, decrease in cold extremes, decrease in frost days, and increase in length of the growing season have been projected across large portions of NA ( Meehl and Tebaldi 2004 ; Diffenbaugh et al. 2005 ; Biasutti et al. 2012 ; Christiansen et al. 2011 ; Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 ; Duffy and Tebaldi 2012 ; Lau and Nath 2012 ), projected trends that are generally consistent with observed trends in such quantities over the

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Brian A. Colle, Zhenhai Zhang, Kelly A. Lombardo, Edmund Chang, Ping Liu, and Minghua Zhang

. In several CMIP3 models there was an increase in more extreme cyclones (central pressure < 970 hPa) in the future experiments ( Lambert and Fyfe 2006 ); however, the increase in intense cyclones is limited to some areas, depending on models and experiments. Regions near the British Isles and Aleutian Islands show an increase in some models ( Geng and Sugi 2003 ; Pinto et al. 2007 ). This has been attributed to the latent heat release within these midlatitude storms ( Carnell and Senior 1998

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Justin Sheffield, Suzana J. Camargo, Rong Fu, Qi Hu, Xianan Jiang, Nathaniel Johnson, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Seon Tae Kim, Jim Kinter, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Eric Maloney, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, J. David Neelin, Sumant Nigam, Zaitao Pan, Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, Richard Seager, Yolande L. Serra, De-Zheng Sun, Chunzai Wang, Shang-Ping Xie, Jin-Yi Yu, Tao Zhang, and Ming Zhao

the MSD is underestimated in some regions, including along the Pacific coast of Central America, the western Caribbean, the major Caribbean islands, and Florida. Figure 3 also shows the MME standard deviation and a histogram of the spatial correlations of individual models with the MME mean. The largest uncertainties are collocated with the regions of largest magnitude of the MSD indicating that much of the model disagreement is in the magnitude. Several models stand out as outliers in

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