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  • Isotopic analysis x
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Steven J. Phipps, Helen V. McGregor, Joëlle Gergis, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Raphael Neukom, Samantha Stevenson, Duncan Ackerley, Josephine R. Brown, Matt J. Fischer, and Tas D. van Ommen

from within the internal dynamics of the ENSO system itself. As this analysis employs a simple forward model, it represents an application of the forward approach to paleoclimate data–model comparison ( section 1b ). a. Pseudocoral derivation Coral δ 18 O is influenced by both the temperature and δ 18 O value of the ambient seawater ( Epstein et al. 1953 ; Weber and Woodhead 1972 ; Juillet-Leclerc and Schmidt 2001 ). To estimate the value of coral δ 18 O within their isotope-enabled climate

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Michelle Ho, Danielle C. Verdon-Kidd, Anthony S. Kiem, and Russell N. Drysdale

, particularly for streamflow). This is clearly insufficient to capture variability occurring on a multidecadal time scale or longer. Recent advances in the collection and analysis of paleoclimate information have, however, provided insights into historical environmental events and processes prior to the availability of instrumental records ( Bradley and Jones 1995 ; Cronin 2010 ). This information has enabled a greater understanding of long-term environmental variability and associated hydroclimatic risks

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Ailie J. E. Gallant, Steven J. Phipps, David J. Karoly, A. Brett Mullan, and Andrew M. Lorrey

that variations in local–remote climate relationships are inconsistent with stochastic variations in the local climate on time scales longer than 50 yr. Provided the running correlations represent a real change in the relative influence of the ENSO or SAM on the Australasian climate, then the station time series should display some spatiotemporal coherence, which was examined using EOF analysis. Figure 5 identifies those stations that most strongly loaded the first two EOFs of the nonstationary 31

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