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Tobias Selz

investigated on a logarithmic x axis. 3. Results a. Time series of DKE As an example Fig. 2 shows the error growth of the geopotential of the July 2017 ensemble run over the Northern Hemisphere at four different forecast times. At time zero the ensemble members are identical and thus the five lines lie exactly on top of each other. After 7 days into the forecast one can see slight perturbation to the jet, which then grow further, and after about 14 days of simulation the ensemble members seem to be

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Toward a Systematic Evaluation of Warm Conveyor Belts in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part I: Predictor Selection and Logistic Regression Model

Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams

; Methven 2015 ) where it generates anticyclonic PV anomalies (label 3 in Fig. 1 ). When this WCB outflow, along with its diabatically driven divergent flow, impinges on the midlatitude waveguide and jet stream, the waveguide is deflected poleward, and a ridge is built (e.g., Pomroy and Thorpe 2000 ; Grams et al. 2011 ; Teubler and Riemer 2016 ; Bosart et al. 2017 ; Quinting and Reeder 2017 ). This ridge building may trigger the development and downstream propagation of a baroclinic Rossby wave

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