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Seth Saslo and Steven J. Greybush

1996 ) and the perturbations would not be preserved in time (e.g., Gutierrez et al. 2008 ). This evolution points to the importance of introducing information about the “errors of the day” ( Kalnay 2003 ) and tuning perturbation parameters accordingly for medium-range LES forecasts. Later, other limited-area model considerations became additional factors limiting the ensemble spread in IC. At the time of the event, a strong zonal midlevel jet with winds exceeding 50 m s −1 had moved into the

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