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Toward a Systematic Evaluation of Warm Conveyor Belts in Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Models. Part I: Predictor Selection and Logistic Regression Model

Julian F. Quinting and Christian M. Grams

; Methven 2015 ) where it generates anticyclonic PV anomalies (label 3 in Fig. 1 ). When this WCB outflow, along with its diabatically driven divergent flow, impinges on the midlatitude waveguide and jet stream, the waveguide is deflected poleward, and a ridge is built (e.g., Pomroy and Thorpe 2000 ; Grams et al. 2011 ; Teubler and Riemer 2016 ; Bosart et al. 2017 ; Quinting and Reeder 2017 ). This ridge building may trigger the development and downstream propagation of a baroclinic Rossby wave

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