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Takuya Kawabata, Tohru Kuroda, Hiromu Seko, and Kazuo Saito

“guerrilla” heavy rainfalls because of their unforeseeability. At present, local heavy rainfall is primarily forecast by kinematical methods based on extrapolation, but such methods have limited accuracy that degrades in a short time. Thus, the dynamical forecasting of local heavy rainfalls using a numerical model is one of the most important challenges in meteorology today. A primary reason for the difficulty in predicting local heavy rainfalls is their small size. Conventional observations (e

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