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Omar V. Müller, Ernesto Hugo Berbery, Domingo Alcaraz-Segura, and Michael B. Ek

from land-use and land-cover changes, either from natural or anthropogenic origin or from climate conditions that affect the vegetation health and its phenology. Abundant evidence based on model simulations has been offered on the impacts of land-cover changes on regional to global climate and will not be reviewed here (see, e.g., Pielke et al. 2007 , and references therein; Mahmood et al. 2010 ). The need for a correct representation of the land surface in models has been discussed for many

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Omar V. Müller, Ernesto Hugo Berbery, Domingo Alcaraz-Segura, and Michael B. Ek

region. Only data over land were considered. REFERENCE Müller , O. V. , E. H. Berbery , D. Alcaraz-Segura , and M. B. Ek , 2014 : Regional model simulations of the 2008 drought in southern South America using a consistent set of land surface properties . J. Climate , 27 , 6754 – 6778 , doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00463.1 .

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Belen Rodríguez-Fonseca, Elsa Mohino, Carlos R. Mechoso, Cyril Caminade, Michela Biasutti, Marco Gaetani, J. Garcia-Serrano, Edward K. Vizy, Kerry Cook, Yongkang Xue, Irene Polo, Teresa Losada, Leonard Druyan, Bernard Fontaine, Juergen Bader, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Lisa Goddard, Serge Janicot, Alberto Arribas, William Lau, Andrew Colman, M. Vellinga, David P. Rowell, Fred Kucharski, and Aurore Voldoire

Experiment (HAPEX) in the Sahel ( Goutorbe et al. 1997 ) made a contribution to understanding the land surface processes in relation to the WAM variability. Since then, several studies have addressed the role of land surface processes in driving Sahel drought. Land surface parameterizations in the atmospheric models used in these studies cover a wide range of complexity (e.g., Laval and Picon 1986 ; Sud and Molud 1988 ; Xue et al. 1990 ; Eltahir and Gong 1996 ). Nevertheless, the results on

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Lixia Zhang and Tianjun Zhou

forcing ( Duan and Wu 2008 ) and anthropogenic forcing agents including aerosols ( Menon et al. 2002 ; Wang et al. 2013 ) have also been suggested as mechanisms that have driven the long-term monsoon and thereby drought changes over East Asia. A regional model study on land-use effects showed that the land use modified by anthropogenic activities may result in a reduction of precipitation and an increase of temperature over north China ( Gao et al. 2007 ). A recent analysis of 17 models from phase 5

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Siegfried D. Schubert, Hailan Wang, Randal D. Koster, Max J. Suarez, and Pavel Ya. Groisman

period January 1948–January 2013. We also make use of the CRUTEM4 2-m temperature station data gridded to 5° latitude × 5° longitude for the period 1850–2012 ( Jones et al. 2012 ) and the NOAA Merged Land-Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis (MLOST; Smith et al. (2008) ), version 3.5.2, also at 5° × 5° latitude/longitude for the period from 1880 to the present. For the precipitation data, we use NOAA’s precipitation reconstruction over land (PRECL) on a 1° latitude–longitude grid for the period 1948

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Siegfried D. Schubert, Ronald E. Stewart, Hailan Wang, Mathew Barlow, Ernesto H. Berbery, Wenju Cai, Martin P. Hoerling, Krishna K. Kanikicharla, Randal D. Koster, Bradfield Lyon, Annarita Mariotti, Carlos R. Mechoso, Omar V. Müller, Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Richard Seager, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Lixia Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou

induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale . Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , 109 , 12 398 – 12 403 , doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109 . Müller , O. V. , E. H. Berbery , D. Alcaraz-Segura , and M. B. Ek , 2014 : Regional model simulations of the 2008 drought in southern South America using a consistent set of land surface properties . J. Climate , 27 , 6754 – 6778 , doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00463.1 . Orlowsky , B. , and S. I. Seneviratne , 2012 : Global changes in extreme

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Richard Seager and Martin Hoerling

that characterize regional climate at different spatial and temporal scales. Consider interactions across greenhouse gas forcings, natural modes of variability, land use changes and feedbacks, aerosols, tropospheric constituents.” Models and data used are described next followed by an analysis in sections 3 through 7 of the roles of the ocean and atmosphere in explaining North American precipitation variability over the past century. Section 8 then focuses on the post-1979 period in the U

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Mathew Barlow, Benjamin Zaitchik, Shlomit Paz, Emily Black, Jason Evans, and Andrew Hoell

impacts spanning crop failures; widespread livestock death; significant population migrations; increases in diseases (polio, cholera, diphtheria, typhoid, and tuberculosis); soil and land cover degradation; loss of orchards and fruit trees both as a result of direct drought impacts and through use as fuel; desiccation of internationally important wetlands; increase in household debt, with a disproportionate impact on women and children; and international boundary disputes over both river flows and

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Bradfield Lyon

? New insights provided by this paper relate to the decadal modulation of drought during the MAM long rains season, linking it to decadal-scale SST variations in the tropical Pacific. Understanding the associated physical mechanisms responsible for the identified behavior on these time scales, however, remains an area of active research. The paper is outlined as follows. Section 2 provides details on the data used in the study while section 3 provides a general overview of the region’s climate

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