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Quanjia Zhong, Jianping Li, Lifeng Zhang, Ruiqiang Ding, and Baosheng Li

longer period of observed TC best track data or a series of idealized simulations using a more realistic numerical model. Second, the observed TC best track data do not contain information on large-scale environmental variables and the internal TC processes, so the NLLE method could not be used to explore the impact of these factors on TC intensity predictability based on the best track data. Although the land effect is removed through removing the landfall data, we cannot remove land effect like in

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David R. Ryglicki, Joshua H. Cossuth, Daniel Hodyss, and James D. Doyle

investigate overshooting tops. Kossin (2002) and Dunion et al. (2014) have examined both the structure and the temporal evolution of the diurnal cycle of mature TCs using geostationary satellite imagery. Lander (1994) used satellite imagery to document the interplay between a large monsoon gyre in the western Pacific and tropical cyclogenesis. The aforementioned works are only a few examples illustrating how satellite observations and interpretations continue to be important for TC analyses. One of

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Peter Black, Lee Harrison, Mark Beaubien, Robert Bluth, Roy Woods, Andrew Penny, Robert W. Smith, and James D. Doyle

1. Introduction Widely used tropical cyclone (TC) models include regional air–sea coupled dynamical models such as COAMPS-TC ( Jin et al. 2014 ), HWRF ( Tallapragada et al. 2014 ; Kim et al. 2014 ) and GFDL ( Bender et al. 2007 ; Gall et al. 2011 ); global dynamical models such as GFS and ECMWF; and statistical–dynamical intensity-prediction models such as SHIPS, the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS), the Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM), and the rapid intensity

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Xu Lu and Xuguang Wang

ocean, effective utilization of all-sky satellite radiance observations in the cloudy and rainy regions, such as the eyewall and spiral rainbands, is still immature ( Bauer et al. 2010 , 2011 ; Yang et al. 2016 ; Zhang et al. 2016 ; Zhu et al. 2018 ; Geer et al. 2018 ). Because of the lack of high-resolution inner-core observations, early NWP studies usually initialized the TC predictions using a bogus vortex based on limited vortex information [e.g., radius of maximum wind (RMW), maximum wind

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Shixuan Zhang, Zhaoxia Pu, and Christopher Velden

sources for use in operational data assimilation. Unfortunately, limitations of current data assimilation methodologies prevent most satellite radiances in the TC inner core and near environmental regions from being assimilated. This occurs because of cloud and precipitation contamination, although all-sky data assimilation has become an active research area in recent years ( Zhu et al. 2016 ). Fortunately, satellite-derived products, especially atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs; Velden et al. 1997

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James D. Doyle, Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Joel W. Feldmeier, Ronald J. Ferek, Mark Beaubien, Michael M. Bell, Daniel L. Cecil, Robert L. Creasey, Patrick Duran, Russell L. Elsberry, William A. Komaromi, John Molinari, David R. Ryglicki, Daniel P. Stern, Christopher S. Velden, Xuguang Wang, Todd Allen, Bradford S. Barrett, Peter G. Black, Jason P. Dunion, Kerry A. Emanuel, Patrick A. Harr, Lee Harrison, Eric A. Hendricks, Derrick Herndon, William Q. Jeffries, Sharanya J. Majumdar, James A. Moore, Zhaoxia Pu, Robert F. Rogers, Elizabeth R. Sanabia, Gregory J. Tripoli, and Da-Lin Zhang

experiments were conducted to investigate the impact of assimilating the dropsonde data collected by the TCI and IFEX field campaigns on the analysis of Hurricane Patricia. The continuously cycling HWRF hybrid DA system was started at 1800 UTC 20 October, when Patricia was at its incipient stage, and ended at 1200 UTC 24 October, when Patricia weakened to a tropical depression over land. In these experiments, observations from the National Weather Service (NWS) data stream that are used by operational

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Shixuan Zhang and Zhaoxia Pu

9000 km × 9000 km, 1300 km × 1200 km, and 800 km × 700 km, and grid resolutions of 18, 6, and 2 km, respectively (see Fig. 1 ). In addition, the atmospheric component of the NMM core in HWRF V3.7a is formulated with 61 vertical levels and a model top at 2 hPa. A suite of advanced physical parameterizations developed for tropical cyclone applications ( Bao et al. 2012 ), including the Ferrier–Aligo microphysical parameterization, the Noah Land Surface Model, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

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Benjamin C. Trabing, Michael M. Bell, and Bonnie R. Brown

(RCE), and as such the impact of upper-tropospheric temperature modification on intensity has primarily been evaluated on long time scales >100 days in RCE ( Emanuel et al. 2013 ). Ramsay (2013) analyzed the effects of colder tropopause temperatures on TC intensity using a nonhydrostatic, axisymmetric, cloud-resolving model in RCE over 120 days. Ramsay found that the maximum intensity of their 2D simulated TCs increased by 1 m s −1 K −1 cooling of the prescribed tropopause temperature and

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Jonathan Martinez, Michael M. Bell, Robert F. Rogers, and James D. Doyle

calculate both kinematic and thermodynamic gradients. Because of these limitations, observational studies have typically used vertical vorticity as a proxy for PV. Doppler radar data and in situ measurements have been utilized in both composite and case studies to demonstrate that intensifying TCs are characterized by a ringlike structure of vorticity with a maximum located off the axis of rotation, radially inward of the RMW ( Kossin and Eastin 2001 ; Rogers et al. 2013a , 2015 ; Martinez et al

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Patrick Duran and John Molinari

-level static stability and cold-point tropopause structure throughout Patricia’s RI. The cold-point tropopause is defined as the level of minimum temperature in a sounding ( Highwood and Hoskins 1998 ). This tropopause definition is widely used in the tropics because the cold-point temperature influences the exchange of ozone and water vapor between the troposphere and stratosphere ( Mote et al. 1996 ), which has important climatological implications ( Holton et al. 1995 ). Although few papers have

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