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Roland J. Viger, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, John W. Jones, and Gary R. Buell

1. Introduction This article describes a study that is part of the climate-change project described in the overview article of this Integrated Watershed special collection ( Hay et al. 2011 ). It is distinct from the other studies presented because it examines the hydrologic effect of changing land-cover patterns and the interaction of this effect with those created by climate change. In this study, a watershed model was run to simulate the hydrology of a basin through the year 2050 by using

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Daniel E. Christiansen, Steven L. Markstrom, and Lauren E. Hay

improve PRMS/GCM modeling by including a changing land use/land cover, because this important factor for determining GSL is not represented in this study. This study has shown that GSL does have hydrologic impacts that should be examined in more detail. The increases in GSL that will accompany forecasted increases in temperature are important because they are integrally linked with a range of factors such as phenological events, agricultural production and practices, and water resources across the

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Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Christian Ward-Garrison

evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on basin response. Response to normal and extreme rainfall and snowmelt can be simulated to evaluate changes in water-balance relations, streamflow regimes, soil-water relations, and groundwater recharge. Each hydrologic component used for generation of streamflow is represented within PRMS by a process algorithm that is based on a physical law or an empirical relation with measured or calculated characteristics

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David M. Bjerklie, Thomas J. Trombley, and Roland J. Viger

characteristics that can be quantified using geographical information systems (GIS) and widely available spatial datasets, including land cover, topography, soil, and geology. There have been two recent large-area modeling efforts using PRMS completed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), one in the Delaware River basin (Pennsylvania and New Jersey) and the other in the Flint River basin (Georgia). In the Flint River study, the basic PRMS model was used unmodified including the method to simulate solar

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P. C. D. Milly and Krista A. Dunne

expression of these controls is the generalized Turc–Pike relation ( Choudhury 1999 ), or simply in which the parameter υ characterizes the tendency of the river basin to conserve water for evapotranspiration. Our strategy is to use this relation as a crude “model of all models” to approximate the behaviors of PRMS and the land representations in the climate models and, thereby, to facilitate the elucidation of their differing behaviors. The generalized Turc

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John Risley, Hamid Moradkhani, Lauren Hay, and Steve Markstrom

al. ( Dagnachew et al. 2003 ) used PRMS to simulate climate and land-use changes in south-central Ethiopia. Chang and Jung ( Chang and Jung 2010 ) used PRMS and precipitation and temperature input from eight GCMs to simulate potential changes in annual, seasonal, and high- and low-flow runoff in 216 subbasins of the Willamette River basin in Oregon for the 2040s and 2080s. Hay et al. ( Hay et al. 2011 ) presented watershed-scale responses to climate change in selected basins across the United

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Kathryn M. Koczot, Steven L. Markstrom, and Lauren E. Hay

1. Introduction In a recent study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, the hydrologic effects of different emission scenarios for the twenty-first century were evaluated for 14 basins in different hydroclimatic regions across the United States (see Hay et al. 2011 ). The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) (see Leavesley et al. 1983 ), a process-based, distributed-parameter watershed model, was used to evaluate these hydrologic effects. For each of the 14 basins, simulated

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John F. Walker, Lauren E. Hay, Steven L. Markstrom, and Michael D. Dettinger

the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. The PRMS models for this national study were developed, calibrated, and evaluated for previous or current hydrologic investigations. Outputs from five GCMs responding to three greenhouse-gas emission scenarios were input to PRMS models to simulate an ensemble of hydrologic responses to climate changes for each watershed. The hydrologic impact and sensitivity of the simulations

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William Battaglin, Lauren Hay, and Markstrom Steve

East and Yampa River basins as part of earlier studies ( Hay et al. 1993 ; McCabe and Hay 1995 ; Hay et al. 2006a ; Hay et al. 2006b ; Markstrom et al. 2011 ). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general watershed hydrology ( Leavesley et al. 1983 ). PRMS models of the East and Yampa River basins were calibrated using an automated, multiple objective

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Mark C. Mastin, Katherine J. Chase, and R. W. Dudley

-term planning for reservoir design and water-management strategies ( Adeloye et al. 1999 ; Draper and Kundell 2007 ), despite incomplete knowledge about the volumetric change in snowpack that can be expected and how snowpack changes may vary regionally and locally. A key measure of snowpack condition used by resource managers in the western United States is the snow-water equivalent (SWE) on 1 April ( Serreze et al. 1999 ). Researchers have adopted this measure in climate-change studies to characterize the

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