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Benjamin Sultan, Serge Janicot, and Cyrille Correia

variability of convection in other regions of the tropics. Most of these examples concern the prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), which is the dominant oscillatory mode in the tropics ( Madden and Julian 1972 ). Skillful predictions of the MJO have been obtained at a medium lead time (less than 10 days) using either dynamical forecasts or statistical methods. For instance, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) model shows skillful forecasts of

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Adrian M. Tompkins and Laura Feudale

( Fontaine et al. 2008 ). The delayed onset has been partly attributed to the passage of a Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) event by Janicot and Sultan (2007) and Janicot et al. (2008) . Drobinski et al. (2009) discuss the role of the interaction between the African easterly jet, AEWs, and the Harmattan winds, while Marin et al. (2009) highlight the fact that the Atlantic equatorial cold tongue development was delayed in 2006 producing a significant SST warm anomaly. The FEWS observations show that

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