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Belen Rodríguez-Fonseca, Elsa Mohino, Carlos R. Mechoso, Cyril Caminade, Michela Biasutti, Marco Gaetani, J. Garcia-Serrano, Edward K. Vizy, Kerry Cook, Yongkang Xue, Irene Polo, Teresa Losada, Leonard Druyan, Bernard Fontaine, Juergen Bader, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Lisa Goddard, Serge Janicot, Alberto Arribas, William Lau, Andrew Colman, M. Vellinga, David P. Rowell, Fred Kucharski, and Aurore Voldoire

, Pacific, and Indian Oceans and the Mediterranean Sea) on the WAM precipitation at interannual time scales. a. Influence of the tropical Atlantic Ocean Since the early papers by Hastenrath and Lamb (1977) , Lamb (1978) , and Hastenrath (1984) , many others have documented the tropical Atlantic influence on West African rainfall. This influence unfolds at different time scales: the variability in the equatorial and southern sectors affects that in interannual time scales, while that in the northern

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Mathew Barlow, Benjamin Zaitchik, Shlomit Paz, Emily Black, Jason Evans, and Andrew Hoell

, as measured by the 12-month standardized precipitation index (SPI), calculated based on precipitation from the CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP; Xie and Arkin 1996 , 1997 ), relative to the 1979–2010 period. The red oval denotes the focus area for this review. The terms “Middle East” and “southwest Asia” both have varying definitions. For the purposes of this study, the region considered extends from the east coast of the Mediterranean Sea through Pakistan, along with the Arabian

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Siegfried D. Schubert, Ronald E. Stewart, Hailan Wang, Mathew Barlow, Ernesto H. Berbery, Wenju Cai, Martin P. Hoerling, Krishna K. Kanikicharla, Randal D. Koster, Bradfield Lyon, Annarita Mariotti, Carlos R. Mechoso, Omar V. Müller, Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Richard Seager, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Lixia Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou

the 1950s ( Sheffield et al. 2012 ; Hartmann et al. 2013 ; Greve et al. 2014 ), a signal consistent with climate change projections (see below). Nonetheless, a possible attribution of these historical trends to increased greenhouse gas concentrations has not been provided so far, and it is possible that decadal variability associated with large-scale modes of variability could have played a role. Hoerling et al. (2012) note that for the land area surrounding the Mediterranean Sea, 10 of the 12

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Siegfried D. Schubert, Hailan Wang, Randal D. Koster, Max J. Suarez, and Pavel Ya. Groisman

somewhat larger negative correlations (between −0.3 and −0.4) in the tropical eastern Pacific at both 0 and −1 month lags, suggesting a weak link to ENSO. Also, RPC 3 has positive correlations with SST (between 0.3 and 0.4 at lag 0) over the North Atlantic, with a similar pattern of correlations (but weaker) occurring at −1 lag. The largest correlations with SST occur for RPC 5 (values greater than 0.5 at lag 0) over the far eastern North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea in the immediate vicinity of

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