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Benoît Vié, Olivier Nuissier, and Véronique Ducrocq

conditions afterward. Important convective activity (identified by precipitation and lightning impacts) occurred on 7, 8, and 20–24 October 2008, and from 30 October to 5 November 2008, mostly over southeastern France and the Mediterranean Sea. An examination of the AROME–PEARP1 and AROME–PERTOBS ensembles over shorter periods included in the 31-day period showed that their behavior is not significantly different, and the conclusions are unchanged. Therefore, to save computing time, the AROME–PEARP2

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Mio Matsueda, Masayuki Kyouda, Zoltan Toth, H. L. Tanaka, and Tadashi Tsuyuki

considered to have affected the development of blocking. Fig . 7. Initial difference between the JMA EPS and NCEP EPS control analyses at 1200 UTC 10 Dec 2005, measured by dry total energy. A sensitive area for blocking formation is bounded by the solid black line (30°–50°N, 150°E–170°W). Fig . 8. Time evolution of sea level pressure for the JMA EPS (thick contours) and the NCEP EPS (thin contours) control runs initialized at 1200 UTC 10 Dec 2005. Shading indicates a sensitive area (30°–50°N, 150°E–170°W

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