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Fuqing Zhang, Yonghui Weng, Jason A. Sippel, Zhiyong Meng, and Craig H. Bishop

1. Introduction Landfalling hurricanes are among the deadliest and costliest natural hazards. Over the past decade, significant progress has been made in short-range track forecasts of tropical cyclones. The current-day average 48-h forecast position is as accurate as a 24-h track forecast was 10 yr ago ( Franklin 2004 ). However, there is virtually no improvement in our ability to predict hurricane intensity in terms of minimum sea level pressure, maximum wind speed, or amount of precipitation

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