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Young-Kwon Lim, Siegfried D. Schubert, Oreste Reale, Myong-In Lee, Andrea M. Molod, and Max J. Suarez

Syst., doi: 10.1002/2014MS000372 , in press . Shen , B.-W. , R. Atlas , O. Reale , S.-J. Lin , J.-D. Chen , J. Chang , C. Henze , and J.-L. Li , 2006 : Hurricane forecasts with a global mesoscale-resolving model: Preliminary results with Hurricane Katrina (2005) . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 33 , L13813 , doi: 10.1029/2006GL026143 . Shen , W. , R. E. Tuleya , and I. Ginnis , 2000 : A sensitivity study of the thermodynamic environment on GFDL model hurricane intensity

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Wei Mei, Shang-Ping Xie, and Ming Zhao

the operational forecast of the path for a specific TC at a lead time of a few days, which has improved steadily in recent decades (e.g., Cangialosi and Franklin 2013 ). These findings also have important implications in the context of climate change: even if the multimodel ensemble can well project changes in total seasonal TC counts under global warming, it remains difficult to assess changes in local TC occurrence, particularly near the coast, where landfall TCs incur the greatest societal and

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Hamish A. Ramsay, Savin S. Chand, and Suzana J. Camargo

Hemisphere ( Ramsay et al. 2012 ), as well as to typhoon post-landfall tracks over China ( Zhang et al. 2013 ). Other recent applications of this cluster analysis include a comparison of tracks of TCs in a reanalysis dataset to observations ( Bell et al. 2018 ), analysis of the skill of tropical cyclone forecasts ( Don et al. 2016 , Kowaleski and Evans 2016 ), and in the development of statistical–dynamical seasonal forecasts ( Zhang et al. 2016 ). The application we focus on here is to examine the

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Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Timothy LaRow, Daniel J. Halperin, and Ming Zhao

some respects. Most notably, the modeled systems are still unable to attain intensities of observed TCs (e.g., Emanuel et al. 2008 ; LaRow et al. 2008 ; Zhao and Held 2010 ). In fact, Chen et al. (2007) used mesoscale models to demonstrate that a grid spacing of ~1 km may be necessary to resolve hurricane eyewall convection and wind maxima. Despite these shortcomings, recent studies reveal some promise in the ability of GCMs to reproduce global TC statistics such as storm counts and seasonal

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Suzana J. Camargo, Michael K. Tippett, Adam H. Sobel, Gabriel A. Vecchi, and Ming Zhao

Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-40) and National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP)–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, as well as retrievals of column water vapor from satellite passive microwave observations. The regression methodology is objective and provides a framework for the selection of the climate variables to be used in the index. This method led us to select four environmental variables for the index similar but not identical

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