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David M. Schultz and Joseph M. Sienkiewicz

. Specifically, frontolysis explains the location of sting jets at the end of the bent-back front, their mesoscale dimensions, and their occurrence within Shapiro–Keyser cyclones. The result, therefore, is an improved conceptual model for sting jets as a component of the frontal structure and evolution of Shapiro–Keyser cyclones ( Fig. 6 ). Further cases are necessary to generalize the above results and test the proposed forecast approach. Acknowledgments We thank Jim Steenburgh, Geraint Vaughan, Peter

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G. Vaughan, J. Methven, D. Anderson, B. Antonescu, L. Baker, T. P. Baker, S. P. Ballard, K. N. Bower, P. R. A. Brown, J. Chagnon, T. W. Choularton, J. Chylik, P. J. Connolly, P. A. Cook, R. J. Cotton, J. Crosier, C. Dearden, J. R. Dorsey, T. H. A. Frame, M. W. Gallagher, M. Goodliff, S. L. Gray, B. J. Harvey, P. Knippertz, H. W. Lean, D. Li, G. Lloyd, O. Martínez–Alvarado, J. Nicol, J. Norris, E. Öström, J. Owen, D. J. Parker, R. S. Plant, I. A. Renfrew, N. M. Roberts, P. Rosenberg, A. C. Rudd, D. M. Schultz, J. P. Taylor, T. Trzeciak, R. Tubbs, A. K. Vance, P. J. van Leeuwen, A. Wellpott, and A. Woolley

The combination of new aircraft measurements and high-resolution modeling reveal finescale wind structure in an intense extratropical windstorm. Extratropical cyclones approaching western Europe along the North Atlantic storm track are a major cause of damaging winds and heavy precipitation. A particular problem in forecasting these cyclones is that the highest-impact weather within them arises from mesoscale structures such as fronts and bands of strong winds. These structures are influenced

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Thomas H. A. Frame, John Methven, Nigel M. Roberts, and Helen A. Titley

km of feature center at 1 km ZAGL. In this paper, we present an assessment of the changes in the climatological statistics of these features tracked over forecast lead times and an assessment of the skill in the probabilistic predictions of them. The rest of the paper is divided into four sections. In section 2 , we give a brief overview of the tracked data used in this paper and MOGREPS-15. In section 3 , the statistical properties of the mesoscale features are examined. In section 4 , the

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Matthew R. Clark and Douglas J. Parker

narrow rainband . Meteor. Atmos. Phys. , 46 , 123 – 154 , doi: 10.1007/BF01027339 . Koch , S. E. , and C. O’Handley , 1997 : Operational forecasting and detection of mesoscale gravity waves . Wea. Forecasting , 12 , 253 – 281 , doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0253:OFADOM>2.0.CO;2 . Koch , S. E. , and S. Saleeby , 2001 : An automated system for the analysis of gravity waves and other mesoscale phenomena . Wea. Forecasting , 16 , 661 – 679 , doi: 10

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David M. Schultz, Bogdan Antonescu, and Alessandro Chiariello

. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 133 , 1101 – 1112 , doi: 10.1002/qj.87 . Schultz , D. M. , and P. J. Roebber , 2008 : The fiftieth anniversary of Sanders (1955): A mesoscale model simulation of the cold front of 17–18 April 1953. Synoptic–Dynamic Meteorology and Weather Analysis and Forecasting: A Tribute to Fred Sanders, Meteor. Monogr., No. 55, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 127–143 . Schultz , D. M. , and G. Vaughan , 2011 : Occluded fronts and the occlusion process: A fresh look at

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H. F. Dacre, P. A. Clark, O. Martinez-Alvarado, M. A. Stringer, and D. A. Lavers

’s warm sector, encounters orography (e.g., along the west coast of the United States or United Kingdom), resulting in significant precipitation enhancement ( Hand et al. 2004 ; Ralph et al. 2004 ; Neiman et al. 2008 ). These events involve a combination of large-scale synoptic and mesoscale processes in an orographic precipitation-enhancement mechanism known as the seeder–feeder mechanism ( Bader and Roach 1977 ). In this process, precipitation from the cyclone’s upper-level cloud features (seeder

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Jeffrey M. Chagnon and Suzanne L. Gray

), diabatic Rossby waves (e.g., Parker and Thorpe 1995 ; Moore and Montgomery 2004 ; Moore et al. 2013 ), and forecast error growth (e.g., Brennan et al. 2008 ; Davies and Didone 2013 ). In the absence of frictional and diabatic processes, PV is materially conserved. Therefore, PV provides a convenient means to characterize the large-scale structure of the atmosphere and its evolution in mid- and high latitudes where the planetary vorticity is nonnegligible. Climatologically, PV increases with height

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C. Dearden, G. Vaughan, T. Tsai, and J.-P. Chen

temperature. Similarly a single prognostic variable is used to treat precipitation, using temperature to distinguish rain from snow. The Ferrier scheme is used operationally by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in the WRF North American Mesoscale Forecast System (WRF-NAM) model, and is designed with computational efficiency in mind. As such it only treats total condensate as a prognostic variable, and the fractional contribution of cloud water, rain, and ice to total condensate is

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Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Laura H. Baker, Suzanne L. Gray, John Methven, and Robert S. Plant

connection to instability with respect to CSI. Finally, Browning (2004) and Clark et al. (2005) proposed that evaporative cooling may also enhance the descent rate of sting jet airstreams, although Baker et al. (2014) found little impact in an idealized cyclone simulation. The cyclone analyzed here produced very strong winds over the United Kingdom on 8 December 2011 and was the focus of the intensive observing period 8 (IOP8) during the second field campaign of the Diabatic Influences on Mesoscale

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Jesse Norris, Geraint Vaughan, and David M. Schultz

has formed, is reinitialized with a 4-km nested domain and the different diabatic factors are varied between simulations, subsequent to this time. Thus, this paper demonstrates how precipitation cores along a mature cold front of maritime origin vary, depending on differences in the synoptic and mesoscale flow environment. 2. Method Moist idealized baroclinic-wave simulations were performed with version 3.7.1 of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model ( Skamarock et al

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