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Anthony M. DeAngelis, Hailan Wang, Randal D. Koster, Siegfried D. Schubert, Yehui Chang, and Jelena Marshak

the spatial propagation of drought conditions in 2012 ( Basara et al. 2019 ; Herrera-Estrada et al. 2019 ). Dynamical seasonal forecasts issued in the spring of 2012 failed to predict intensifying drought conditions in the subsequent months ( Hoerling et al. 2014 ), likely exacerbating the negative impacts of the severe flash drought that ensued. Here, we address the question of whether subseasonal forecasts, that is, forecasts for approximately three weeks to one month in the future, could have

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Chul-Su Shin, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Bohua Huang, Subhadeep Halder, and Arun Kumar

1. Introduction Useful predictability of deterministic weather forecasts is usually no more than 2 weeks, limited by the sensitivity to the atmospheric initial state, while longer memory from ocean heat content plays a dominant role in the climate predictability on seasonal and longer time scales (e.g., Lorenz 1963 , 1975 ; Shukla 1985 ; Lorenz 1993 ). There is a gap between the two time scales of weather and climate predictions, where inertia in the land surface, such as soil moisture

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Chul-Su Shin, Bohua Huang, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Subhadeep Halder, and Arun Kumar

—Part 2: Seasonal forecasts . Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. , 11 , 919 – 944 , https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-919-2014 . 10.5194/hessd-11-919-2014 Ek , M. , K. E. Mitchell , Y. Lin , E. Rogers , P. Grunmann , V. Koren , G. Gayno , and J. D. Tarpley , 2003 : Implementation of Noah land-surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model . J. Geophys. Res. , 108 , 8851 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD003296

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