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Russell L. Elsberry, Eric A. Hendricks, Christopher S. Velden, Michael M. Bell, Melinda Peng, Eleanor Casas, and Qingyun Zhao

underestimated the intensity at 1800 UTC 5 October, an alternate explanation is that the HIRAD had detected a mesoscale circulation that was not representative of the Joaquin inner-core circulation. Fig . 11. Forecasts of 10-m wind speed (m s −1 ; color scale below) at 1800 UTC 5 Oct 2015 across domain 3 of the COAMPS-TC model with initial conditions from the (left) Control–GFS and (right) SCDI–GFS analyses after 6 h of assimilating a special AMV dataset at 15-min intervals. 4. Example of SCDI analysis

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Shixuan Zhang and Zhaoxia Pu

understand changes in TC intensity and structure, and also to improve our ability to forecast TC intensity, recently, major field campaigns, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division (HRD) Intensity Forecast Experiments (IFEX; Rogers et al. 2006 , 2013 ), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) field program ( Braun et al. 2013 ), and the National Science Foundation (NSF) Pre

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Nannan Qin and Da-Lin Zhang

questions in this study by conducting a series of cloud-permitting simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. It should be pointed out that the abovementioned poor predictability of the RI and extraordinary intensity of Patricia has been of typical concern for many tropical cyclones (TCs) ( Tallapragada and Kieu 2014 ), despite significant improvements in hurricane models and rapid progress in predicting hurricane tracks during the recent decades ( Rappaport et al. 2009 ). In

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Eric A. Hendricks, Russell L. Elsberry, Christopher S. Velden, Adam C. Jorgensen, Mary S. Jordan, and Robert L. Creasey

Scheme (SHIPS; DeMaria et al. 2005 ) intensity forecasts from 0000 UTC 4 October to 0000 UTC 5 October ( Fig. 1 ) underestimate the rapid weakening during the early forecast intervals. While these SHIPS intensity forecasts then somewhat coincidently had smaller errors during the subsequent constant intensity period, these SHIPS forecasts then indicate rapid weakening to 20 kt when the verifying intensities continued to be greater than 60 kt due to the 30-h period of constant intensity of Joaquin

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