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Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Andreas Schlueter, and Tilmann Gneiting

tropical Africa. Despite only moderately negative skill in the raw forecasts, postprocessing can only achieve neutral skill here. This suggests that the discrepancy between the more frequent and lighter rain generally produced by convection schemes and the very concentrated, long-lived and intense mesoscale convective systems in reality is too large to be cured by a relatively simple statistical correction. The singularity of tropical Africa is also seen in Fig. 2a by Wheeler et al. (2017) using

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Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink, Andreas Schlueter, and Tilmann Gneiting

( Lafore et al. 2017 ), but large parts of the tropical landmasses are dominated by convection that initiates from small-scale surface and boundary layer processes and sometimes is organized into mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). The latter depends mostly on the thermodynamic profile and vertical wind shear. Within this context, northern tropical Africa, particularly the semiarid Sahel, can be considered a region where precipitation forecasting is particularly challenging. The area consists of vast

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Roderick van der Linden, Andreas H. Fink, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Tan Phan-Van

with thin, dashed lines. The orange dot denotes the location of the center of the ECMWF grid box that was used in the evaluation of the ensemble forecast (cf. Fig. 11 ). The green dot indicates the location of the Phu Lien radar station, and the blue dots denote the locations of the Bach Long Vy (WMO station ID 48839) and Beihai (WMO station ID 59644) radiosonde stations. According to D.-Q. Nguyen et al. (2014) , northeastern Vietnam can be separated into two distinct climate zones, termed N2 and

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