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James H. Ruppert Jr., Xingchao Chen, and Fuqing Zhang

circulations diurnally trigger deep moist convection each afternoon, which in turn grows upscale into vigorous mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) ( Houze et al. 1981 ; Johnson and Priegnitz 1981 ; Johnson 1982 ; Mapes and Houze 1993 ). These MCSs often propagate offshore overnight, enduring well into the next day ( Mori et al. 2004 ; Yamanaka et al. 2018 ). A prevalence of long-lived nocturnally offshore-propagating rainfall signatures has been noted in many regions of the world, though the root

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James H. Ruppert Jr. and Fuqing Zhang

( Dai 2001 ; Cronin et al. 2015 ; Yamanaka et al. 2018 ). Owing to the prevailing importance of local mesoscale circulations in the MC, adequately modeling weather and climate here has been a major longstanding challenge—a challenge that links to weather prediction across a vast range of space and time scales ( Neale and Slingo 2003 ; Waliser et al. 2003 ; Dai and Trenberth 2004 ; Love et al. 2011 ). Here we seek to address this challenge by investigating diurnal convective systems in the MC

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Claire L. Vincent and Todd P. Lane

.1175/1525-7541(2004)005<0487:CAMTPG>2.0.CO;2 Kain , J. S. , and J. M. Fritsch , 1992 : The role of the convective “trigger function” in numerical forecasts of mesoscale convective systems . Meteor. Atmos. Phys. , 49 , 93 – 106 , doi: 10.1007/BF01025402 . 10.1007/BF01025402 Kikuchi , K. , and B. Wang , 2008 : Diurnal precipitation regimes in the global tropics . J. Climate , 21 , 2680 – 2696 , doi: 10.1175/2007JCLI2051.1 . 10.1175/2007JCLI2051.1 Kim , D. , M. I. Lee , D. Kim , S. D. Schubert , D. E

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Chu-Chun Chen, Min-Hui Lo, Eun-Soon Im, Jin-Yi Yu, Yu-Chiao Liang, Wei-Ting Chen, Iping Tang, Chia-Wei Lan, Ren-Jie Wu, and Rong-You Chien

, or bare ground) or broader deforestation regions (not confined to the tropics). Besides impacting local and regional climate, large-scale deforestations can also induce remote climate impacts through changes in the large-scale circulation (e.g., Hadley circulation or Walker circulation) and Rossby wave propagation in the atmosphere (e.g., Henderson-Sellers et al. 1993 ; Sud et al. 1996 ; Zhang et al. 1996b ; Snyder 2010 ; Lawrence and Vandecar 2015 ). Mesoscale deforestation (on scales of

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Anurag Dipankar, Stuart Webster, Xiang-Yu Huang, and Van Quang Doan

region running regional models for weather prediction using input conditions from the big centers like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF,) the Met Office (United Kingdom), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (United States). A novelty of the current study is that it utilizes results from a convection-permitting state-of-the-art NWP model to highlight the biases in the input conditions from the high-resolution (9 km) deterministic forecast from ECMWF

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D. Argüeso, R. Romero, and V. Homar

modeling perspective, a better understanding of the mechanisms driving convection in the MC and improved realism of simulated rainfall in the region is a crucial step toward the overarching goal of the YMC, which will ultimately benefit mesoscale and global climate models alike. Fig . 1. The Maritime Continent. Labels indicate names of major islands. The region shown corresponds exactly to the model domain. Global climate models typically have spatial resolutions that are unable to represent the

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Claire L. Vincent and Todd P. Lane

1. Introduction The weather and climate of the Maritime Continent is dominated by both intraseasonal-scale and mesoscale variability. Numerous studies have found evidence to support the modulation of the diurnal precipitation cycle by intraseasonal-scale variability, including Houze et al. (1981) , Rauniyar and Walsh (2013) , Fujita et al. (2011) , Peatman et al. (2014) , Birch et al. (2016) , Vincent and Lane (2016a) , and Vincent and Lane (2017) . A recurring finding in these studies

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Wan-Ling Tseng, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Noel Keenlyside, Chiung-Wen June Chang, Ben-Jei Tsuang, Chia-Ying Tu, and Li-Chiang Jiang

Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) 6-hourly products ( Saha 2011 ). The CLIVAR MJO Working Group diagnostics package ( Waliser et al. 2009 ) is used to isolate and analyze the intraseasonal (20–100 day) variability. MJO phase composites are computed based on the Real-Time Multivariate MJO index ( Wheeler and Hendon 2004 ). We use the ECHAM5.4 ( Roeckner 2003 ) AGCM coupled with the Snow-Ice-Thermocline (SIT) one-column ocean model ( Tu and Tsuang 2005 ; Tsuang et al. 2009 ) to simulate the

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Jian Ling, Yuqing Zhao, and Guiwan Chen

forecast systems than its global reanalysis. Wang et al. (2019) found that prediction skill for MJO convection is lowest when it is over the MC during boreal winter in most WMO/subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) models. Several possible reasons were proposed to explain the MC barrier effect on MJO propagation. They include the reduced surface flux due to the islands of the MC ( Maloney and Sobel 2004 ; Sobel et al. 2008 ), distorted low-level circulation by topography ( Hsu and Lee 2005 ; Inness and

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Chidong Zhang and Jian Ling

numerical models ( Inness and Slingo 2003 ; Kim et al. 2009 ; Seo et al. 2009 ), creating an MJO “prediction barrier” ( Weaver et al. 2011 ; Fu et al. 2013 ). For example, the fraction of MJO events that fail to propagate through the MC is 30% in a global reanalysis product but 50% in the ECMWF forecast system ( Vitart and Molteni 2010 ). The MJO prediction barrier would inevitably undermine the model capability of forecasting global influences of the MJO ( Hendon et al. 2000 ) and hinder the overall

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