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Stanley G. Benjamin, John M. Brown, Gilbert Brunet, Peter Lynch, Kazuo Saito, and Thomas W. Schlatter

field had skill, forecasters had great difficulty in drawing reliable conclusions about conditions on the ground. This problem persisted for many years until surface mesoscale features could be represented in regional models. Fig . 13-10. The 500-hPa skill in U.S. NCEP 36- and 72-h global forecasts between 1955 and 2017. The metric here (values on the ordinate) is a modification of the S1 score ( Teweles and Wobus 1954 , also Kalnay 2003 ) to produce an increasing score with increasing skill as 100

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Harold E. Brooks, Charles A. Doswell III, Xiaoling Zhang, A. M. Alexander Chernokulsky, Eigo Tochimoto, Barry Hanstrum, Ernani de Lima Nascimento, David M. L. Sills, Bogdan Antonescu, and Brad Barrett

to issue severe thunderstorm “advices” (comparable to “watches”) in the early 1990s, mostly by small teams in each of the states’ forecasting centers. Severe storm training sessions conducted by Dr. Charles Doswell III in the mid-1990s led to a more standardized, ingredients-based approach to forecasting, and greater focus on the importance of mesoscale meteorology for storm formation and severity. A more structured approach to national operational training was adopted and a national network of

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David A. R. Kristovich, Eugene Takle, George S. Young, and Ashish Sharma

led to faster ABL wind speeds over the SST maxima and thus convergence and rising motion over their downwind side ( Liu et al. 2007 ). Additional aspects of this behavior have been explored via Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations of Kuroshio meanders ( O’Neill et al. 2010 ). These simulations reveal that mesoscale SST perturbations modify the wind direction within the ABL via SST-induced perturbations to the crosswind components of the pressure gradient, turbulent stress

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Robert A. Houze Jr.

1. Introduction: Hints of mesoscale convection When Huckleberry Finn told the story of floating down the Mississippi River on a raft, he said, “The fifth night below St. Louis we had a big storm after midnight, with a power of thunder and lightning, and the rain poured down in a solid sheet.” Before he wrote this story in 1884, Mark Twain had worked for some years on Mississippi River boats—long before scientific research on storms had gotten under way and revealed that mesoscale convective

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David M. Schultz, Lance F. Bosart, Brian A. Colle, Huw C. Davies, Christopher Dearden, Daniel Keyser, Olivia Martius, Paul J. Roebber, W. James Steenburgh, Hans Volkert, and Andrew C. Winters

correct, northeasters also produce important mesoscale structures that could cause large changes in hazardous weather over short distances, further frustrating forecasters. Spar (1956) showed an example of a type-A cyclone that contained embedded areas of high winds near the surface warm front that could be associated with downward momentum mixing and discrete warm-front propagation. Bosart et al. (1972) and Bosart (1975) first documented the existence of mesoscale coastal fronts ahead of

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Sue Ellen Haupt, Steven Hanna, Mark Askelson, Marshall Shepherd, Mariana A. Fragomeni, Neil Debbage, and Bradford Johnson

. Mahoney , and K. Parks , 2014 : Wind power forecasting. Weather Matters for Energy , A. Troccoli, L. Dubus, and S. E. Haupt, Eds., Springer, 295–318. 10.1007/978-1-4614-9221-4_14 Haupt , S. E. , and Coauthors , 2015 : First year report of the A2e Mesoscale to Microscale Coupling Project. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Rep. PNNL-25108, 124 pp., https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.21572.01927 . 10.13140/RG.2.2.21572.01927 Haupt , S. E. , J. Copeland , W. Y. Y. Cheng , C. Amman , Y

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W.-K. Tao, Y. N. Takayabu, S. Lang, S. Shige, W. Olson, A. Hou, G. Skofronick-Jackson, X. Jiang, C. Zhang, W. Lau, T. Krishnamurti, D. Waliser, M. Grecu, P. E. Ciesielski, R. H. Johnson, R. Houze, R. Kakar, K. Nakamura, S. Braun, S. Hagos, R. Oki, and A. Bhardwaj

suite of mesoscale models in place of global models is being used to construct forecasts of Q 1 . A standard version of ARW was used in this study ( Krishnamurti et al. 2012 ). Table 2-7 lists a set of model configurations put together from the available choices of different cumulus parameterizations and microphysics packages within ARW. Table 2-7. Numerical experiments conducted by different combinations of cumulus parameterization and microphysics schemes. The multimodel superensemble has a

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Sue Ellen Haupt, Robert M. Rauber, Bruce Carmichael, Jason C. Knievel, and James L. Cogan

). Among the NWP models used operationally by the U.S. Air Force were two groundbreaking community mesoscale models: the Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5; Dudhia 1993 ) was run operationally starting in 1997 ( Air Weather Association 2012 ) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model ( Skamarock et al. 2008 ) starting in 2006. The U.S. Air Force contributed to the development of both systems. As with the U.S. Navy, ensemble prediction has been an

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Greg M. McFarquhar and Robert M. Rauber

atmospheric circulations are discussed next, including boundary layer meteorology ( LeMone et al. 2019 ), gas-phase atmospheric chemistry ( Wallington et al. 2019 ), and cloud physics and aerosols ( Kreidenweis et al. 2019 ). The next chapters summarize the important role that numerical models have had in the atmospheric and related sciences, describing the development of weather and climate models ( Randall et al. 2019 ) and the progress that has been made in forecasting and numerical weather prediction

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Larry K. Berg and Peter J. Lamb

-use-induced circulation patterns Prior to 1995, it was speculated that a heterogeneous landscape with a pattern of alternating land use and soil moisture, such as broad bands of alternating crops, could give rise to organized mesoscale circulations. It was thought that accurately accounting for the subgrid spatial variability of surface fluxes could be important for climate simulations (e.g., Anthes 1984 ; Ookouchi et al. 1984 ; Yan and Anthes 1988 ; Pinty et al. 1989 ; Pielke et al. 1991 ; Avissar and Chen

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