Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 19 items for :

  • Mesoscale forecasting x
  • Review Articles in Monthly Weather Review x
  • All content x
Clear All
David M. Schultz and Philip N. Schumacher

include the contemporaneous research of Lindstrom and Nordeng (1992) . Consequently, future research in this area might result in improvements in quantitative precipitation forecasting. Whereas operational implementation of slantwise-convective parameterization in research-mesoscale and operational-forecast models is less imperative with the push to smaller horizontal grid spacing, the climate-modeling community will have need to deal with slantwise convection for the foreseeable future. An

Full access
Zhiyong Meng and Fuqing Zhang

-void areas for the LAM EnKF applications, especially considering our increasing desire to explicitly resolve moist convection. Associated with the data-sparseness problem, the error features of any given mesoscale forecast are poorly known, and as a result it is more difficult to generate initial perturbations and to verify the LAM EnKF results relative to the results of its large-scale counterpart. Moreover, the error growth dynamics of meso- to convective-scale systems are substantially different from

Full access
John Molinari and Michael Dudek

models. In such models, it is not possible to claim to have un derstood the interaction of the convective scale and mesoscale, because cumulus parameterization fixes that interaction a priori through closure conditions. In the words of Ooyama (1982), modelers must not "play the game with loaded dice." Even a perfect forecast on the mesoscale does not mean the process by which in dividual clouds produced a mesoscale disturbance has been understood. Interpretation is further complicated by the

Full access
Craig S. Schwartz and Ryan A. Sobash

forecasts from a convection-permitting ensemble initialized by a mesoscale ensemble Kalman filter . Wea. Forecasting , 29 , 1295 – 1318 , doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-13-00145.1 . 10.1175/WAF-D-13-00145.1 Schwartz , C. S. , G. S. Romine , R. A. Sobash , K. R. Fossell , and M. L. Weisman , 2015a : NCAR’s experimental real-time convection-allowing ensemble prediction system . Wea. Forecasting , 30 , 1645 – 1654 , doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-15-0103.1 . 10.1175/WAF-D-15-0103.1 Schwartz , C. S. , G. S

Full access
Tammy M. Weckwerth and David B. Parsons

high-resolution model in forecasting a triple-point initiation event. Martin and Xue (2006) perform sensitivity analysis of convection using an ensemble of over 12 000 mesoscale model forecasts. Wilson and Roberts (2006) address the performance of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) operational model for convection initiation events. 4. Summary The CI component of IHOP_2002 was undertaken to better understand CI processes and their link to precipitation in the SGP. The papers in this special issue

Full access
Clark Evans, Kimberly M. Wood, Sim D. Aberson, Heather M. Archambault, Shawn M. Milrad, Lance F. Bosart, Kristen L. Corbosiero, Christopher A. Davis, João R. Dias Pinto, James Doyle, Chris Fogarty, Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., Christian M. Grams, Kyle S. Griffin, John Gyakum, Robert E. Hart, Naoko Kitabatake, Hilke S. Lentink, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, William Perrie, Julian F. D. Quinting, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Michael Riemer, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Yujuan Sun, and Fuqing Zhang

-fetch lengths, with transitioning TCs having the greatest potential for these enhanced waves ( Bowyer and MacAfee 2005 ). Waves are small-scale phenomena, however, and their impacts tend to be parameterized in mesoscale models (if represented at all), complicating our ability to analyze and predict these features for ET events. Consequently, in addition to requiring improved inputs from meteorological forecasts, improved wave forecasts require state-of-the-art wave physics that include accurate

Open access
David M. Schultz

. , 111 , 739 – 759 . Bosart , L. F. , 2003 : Whither the weather analysis and forecasting process? Wea. Forecasting , 18 , 520 – 529 . Browning , K. A. , 1990 : Organization of clouds and precipitation in extratropical cyclones. Extratropical Cyclones, The Erik Palmén Memorial Volume, C. W. Newton and E. O. Holopainen, Eds., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 129–153 . Browning , K. A. , N. M. Roberts , and A. J. Illingworth , 1997 : Mesoscale analysis of the activation of a cold front during

Full access
Clifford Mass and Brigid Dotson

storm winds using the fifth-generation PSU–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). They found that pressure perturbations created by the interaction of the bent-back front with the Olympic Mountains extended the time period of high winds in the Puget Sound area but did not enhance peak winds. f. 12 December 1995 Of all the major windstorms to strike the Pacific Northwest, few were better forecast or studied more intensively than the event of 12 December 1995. Hurricane-force gusts and substantial damage covered

Full access
Julia H. Keller, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, Heather M. Archambault, Lance Bosart, James D. Doyle, Jenni L. Evans, Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., Kyle Griffin, Patrick A. Harr, Naoko Kitabatake, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, Florian Pantillon, Julian F. Quinting, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Ryan D. Torn, and Fuqing Zhang

processes associated with mesoscale convective systems over the Great Plains has been identified as a source of short-term skill degradations (busts) in ECMWF forecasts for Europe ( Rodwell et al. 2013 ). In such cases, diabatic processes act to decelerate the eastward progression of a synoptic-scale trough over the Rocky Mountains, similar to the processes described in section 2b . Errors in the representation of these diabatic processes and their impact on the midlatitude flow may lead to large phase

Open access
P. L. Houtekamer and Fuqing Zhang

implemented with a mesoscale model (WRF) by Zhang and Zhang (2012) and Poterjoy and Zhang (2014) . c. Not using linearized models with 4DEnVar In the E4DVar algorithm, discussed above, it is assumed that an accurate linearized forecast model and its adjoint exist and are available for use in data assimilation applications. An alternative, exploited in 4DEnVar algorithms, is to obtain information on the temporal evolution from the ensemble of background trajectories of an EnKF ( Liu et al. 2008 ). The

Full access