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Patrick A. Reinecke and Dale R. Durran

propagation of uncertainties in the specification of initial conditions, the predictability of forecasts for mesoscale motions with spatial scales on the order of 10 km would be limited to time scales on the order of 1 h. This discouraging prospect has largely been supplanted by a more optimistic view based on experiences with high-resolution NWP models demonstrating that realistic mesoscale circulations can be generated during the forecast without having to specify mesoscale precursors to these

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Bowen Zhou and Fotini Katopodes Chow

lidar during CASES-99 . J. Atmos. Sci. , 60 , 16 – 33 . Nieuwstadt , F. T. M. , 1984 : The turbulent structure of the stable, nocturnal boundary layer . J. Atmos. Sci. , 41 , 2202 – 2216 . Rogers , E. , and Coauthors , 2009 : The NCEP North American mesoscale modeling system: Recent changes and future plans. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Omaha, NE, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2A.4. [Available online at https

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Vanda Grubišić and Brian J. Billings

deployed in SRP, and the instrumentation suite consisted of mesoscale surface observations, GPS radiosonde systems, and wind profiling radars. Sixteen Intensive Observing Periods (IOPs) were conducted during the 2-month field campaign. An intense mountain wave and rotor event occurred during IOP 8 on 24–26 March. In this study, analysis of all available observations and results of numerical model simulations of IOP 8 mountain wave and rotor event are presented to determine the extent to which a high

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James D. Doyle, Vanda Grubišić, William O. J. Brown, Stephan F. J. De Wekker, Andreas Dörnbrack, Qingfang Jiang, Shane D. Mayor, and Martin Weissmann

of the downslope wind speed and wave-breaking characteristics as diagnosed from idealized mesoscale ensemble forecasts (e.g., Doyle and Reynolds 2008 ). 6. Conclusions We have explored the dynamics and internal structure of mountain-wave-induced rotors during T-REX IOP 13 through the use of a suite of ground-based and airborne observing platforms and very high-resolution simulations using a large-eddy simulation version of the nonhydrostatic COAMPS model. The observations and model results

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Lukas Strauss, Stefano Serafin, and Vanda Grubišić

at elevation angles ranging from 3° to 60° (PPI-03–PPI-60). Lidar-measured fields included the aerosol backscatter intensity, radial Doppler velocity, and Doppler spectral width. In addition to the observational datasets, 700-hPa analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) are used here to provide the context of the large-scale synoptic flow. 3. Observations The main objective of this work is to reexamine the conceptual model of a

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James D. Doyle and Dale R. Durran

low-level rotor, resulted in the loss of an engine on a commercial United Airline Boeing 747–100 at 600-m AGL near Anchorage, Alaska ( Kahn et al. 1997 ). In spite of their clear significance to the meteorology and aviation communities, the dynamics and structure of rotors are poorly understood and forecasted, in part because of infrequent and insufficient observational measurements, and inadequate sophistication and fidelity of numerical weather prediction models. Mountain waves and rotors were

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Ivana Stiperski and Vanda Grubišić

. These results are further discussed in section 6 . Section 7 presents the summary and concludes the paper. 2. Numerical model and experimental setup The numerical simulations were performed using the atmospheric component of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS; Hodur 1997 ). This is a limited area, nonhydrostatic, fully compressible model that includes a suite of physical parameterizations. In 2D, the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) e

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