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Kimberly E. Klockow, Renee A. McPherson, and Daniel S. Sutter

real-time mesoscale weather information. J. Agric. Resour. Econ. , 20 , 356 – 372 . Kenkel, P. L. , and Norris P. E. , 1997 : Agricultural producers’ willingness to pay for real-time mesoscale weather information: A response. J. Agric. Resour. Econ. , 22 , 382 – 386 . Livezey, R. E. , 1990 : Variability of skill of long-range forecasts and implications for their use and value. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 71 , 300 – 309 . 10.1175/1520-0477(1990)071<0300:VOSOLR>2.0.CO;2 McPherson

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Gregory G. Garner and Anne M. Thompson

(NOAA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) developed the National Air Quality Forecast Capability [NAQFC; also known as the National Air Quality Forecast System (NAQFS) in previous literature] in partial fulfillment of the Energy Policy Act of 2002. The NAQFC couples the Weather Research and Forecasting Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM) ( Janjic 2003 ) with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ( Byun and Schere 2006 ) to produce 48-h forecasts of surface 1-h-average and

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I. Gómez, S. Molina, J. Olcina, and J. J. Galiana-Merino

% chance of rain tomorrow: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts? Risk Anal. , 25 , 623 – 629 , https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00608.x . 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00608.x Gómez , I. , F. Pastor , and M. J. Estrela , 2011 : Sensitivity of a mesoscale model to different convective parameterization schemes in a heavy rain event . Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. , 11 , 343 – 357 , https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-343-2011 . 10.5194/nhess-11-343-2011 Gómez

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Emmanuel Nyadzi, E. Saskia Werners, Robbert Biesbroek, Phi Hoang Long, Wietse Franssen, and Fulco Ludwig

west regions. The existence of bias in the forecast may be due to the inability to accurately simulate the mesoscale systems over West Africa ( Afiesimama et al. 2006 ). Forecast lead time was observed to have little to no effect on the bias and in most times the change was not consistent. Unlike Tmin and Tmax, which showed similar bias in all seasons, rainfall exhibited a unique bias in each season. The reason could be differences in mechanisms associated with each season and variation in local

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Rachael N. Cross and Daphne S. LaDue

1. Introduction For weather forecast information to be useful, it must have some degree of accuracy. This situation is especially true in the southeastern United States due to its unique profile of social vulnerabilities. Ashley (2007) identified the particular juxtaposition of factors: higher numbers of people scattered throughout rural areas with a relatively high percentage of them living in mobile and manufactured homes (see also U.S. Census Bureau 2019 ). Combine these factors with a

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Gigi Owen, Jonathan D. McLeod, Crystal A. Kolden, Daniel B. Ferguson, and Timothy J. Brown

management plan had not accounted for these dangerous conditions ( National Park Service 2001 ). Furthermore, these conditions were, in part, associated with a climate pattern caused by the La Niña phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern, which had been accurately predicted by forecasters in the region ( Morehouse 2000 ). The Cerro Grande fire illustrates a paradigm shift that occurred in fire management at the dawn of the new millennium. Land management practices that acknowledged fire

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Jadwiga R. Ziolkowska, Christopher A. Fiebrich, J. D. Carlson, Andrea D. Melvin, Albert J. Sutherland, Kevin A. Kloesel, Gary D. McManus, Bradley G. Illston, James E. Hocker, and Reuben Reyes

mesoscale weather information is critical for decision-making and business operations in agriculture, event management, thunderstorm prediction, establishment of early warning systems, and weather forecasting for aviation, marine, and wildland fire management ( Mueller et al. 1993 ; Rao et al. 2011 ). Mesoscale weather monitoring has been documented to provide critical information in various sectors including public safety ( Piercefield et al. 2011 ; Morris et al. 2002 ), public utilities ( Kim et al

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Makenzie J. Krocak, Joseph T. Ripberger, Hank Jenkins-Smith, and Carol Silva

to severe weather events, there are generally three different levels of products that compose the public communication process. The first level includes convective outlooks, which are forecast by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) up to 8 days in advance and are generally on a regional or multistate scale. The second level includes mesoscale discussions and severe thunderstorm/tornado watches, which are also issued by the SPC. These products are issued on the day of the event, generally 1–3 h

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Shadya Sanders, Terri Adams, and Everette Joseph

1. Introduction On 27 April 2011, the United States experienced one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in modern history. The potential increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events makes it imperative for the weather and emergency management enterprises to better understand the public’s response to forecast warnings. The 27–28 April “Super Outbreak” spanned 14 states and resulted in 316 deaths—the highest number of tornado-related fatalities experienced in the nation in over 70 years

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Jonathan B. Mason and Jason C. Senkbeil

hierarchical classification system to communicate expected tornado intensity to the public. Based on the commendable performance of the SPC in tornado forecasts, this manuscript will not attempt to develop an additional or alternative method of forecasting tornado potential. Instead, the objective of this research is to communicate the risk associated with tornado watches in an entirely new format. An explanation of the TWS is presented along with an analysis of its safety value and favorability among

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