Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

  • Mesoscale forecasting x
  • Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) x
  • All content x
Clear All
Alan Brammer, Chris D. Thorncroft, and Jason P. Dunion

Debby during NAMMA-06 . Wea. Forecasting , 25 , 866 – 884 , . 10.1175/2010WAF2222313.1 Davis , C. A. , and D. A. Ahijevych , 2012 : Mesoscale structural evolution of three tropical weather systems observed during PREDICT . J. Atmos. Sci. , 69 , 1284 – 1305 , . 10.1175/JAS-D-11-0225.1 Dieng , A. L. , S. M. Sall , A. Lazar , M. Leduc-Leballeur , and L. Eymard , 2014 : Analysis of strengthening

Full access
Erin B. Munsell, Fuqing Zhang, Jason A. Sippel, Scott A. Braun, and Yonghui Weng

1. Introduction Over the past 5 years, considerable effort has been directed toward improving tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction. Despite this effort, the operational prediction of tropical cyclone formation and significant changes in intensity, such as rapid intensification (RI) or decay, remain particularly challenging ( Elsberry et al. 2007 ). These TC forecasts are typically characterized by considerable uncertainty, though past studies have demonstrated the ability of ensemble

Full access
Jonathan Zawislak, Haiyan Jiang, George R. Alvey III, Edward J. Zipser, Robert F. Rogers, Jun A. Zhang, and Stephanie N. Stevenson

1. Introduction The question of whether or not a tropical cyclone (TC) will intensify remains a challenge for both the forecasting and research communities. A diverse array of processes, spanning the environmental, vortex, convective, turbulent, and microphysical scales, can play a key role in determining the likelihood of intensification ( Marks and Shay 1998 ; Rogers et al. 2013a ). In terms of processes occurring on the vortex scale and smaller, these mechanisms can be grouped into

Full access
Scott A. Braun, Paul A. Newman, and Gerald M. Heymsfield

associated with the strong environmental shear impinged on the entire western flank of the storm, with the driest air wrapping around the southern side of the circulation. It is not yet possible to determine the impact of the SAL and upper-level dry air from these observations. However, ensemble simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with coupled aerosol–cloud–radiation physics are being used to quantify the role of the SAL and dry air in this case. Fig . 10. Equivalent potential

Full access
Robert F. Rogers, Jun A. Zhang, Jonathan Zawislak, Haiyan Jiang, George R. Alvey III, Edward J. Zipser, and Stephanie N. Stevenson

1. Introduction This study continues an examination of the intensity change of Hurricane Edouard (2014), a storm in which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WP-3D and G-IV, as well as National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) unmanned Global Hawk, provided detailed measurements of the environment and inner core over several days of its life cycle as part of the NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX; Rogers et al. 2013a ) and NASA Hurricane Severe Storm

Full access
Anthony C. Didlake Jr., Gerald M. Heymsfield, Paul D. Reasor, and Stephen R. Guimond

-scale and mesoscale rainbands and their associated dynamics project strongly onto the azimuthal mean ( Judt and Chen 2010 ; Rozoff et al. 2012 ; Zhu and Zhu 2014 ). Didlake and Houze (2013a) and Qiu and Tan (2013) directly connect the dynamics of rainband asymmetries to important axisymmetric processes. To fully grasp the critical dynamics, a deeper understanding of asymmetries is needed during these early stages of an eyewall replacement cycle. Once a secondary eyewall clearly manifests itself

Full access
Zhining Tao, Scott A. Braun, Jainn J. Shi, Mian Chin, Dongchul Kim, Toshihisa Matsui, and Christa D. Peters-Lidard

precipitation from shallow clouds but invigorate deep convective rain clouds with warm cloud bases. Shi et al. (2014) investigated the impacts of the aerosol indirect and direct effects on the mesoscale convective system (MCS) over the West Africa region and found that the dust aerosol indirect effect was overwhelmed by their direct effect, which delayed the onset of the MCS. Based on an observational investigation of a trans-Atlantic Saharan dust outbreak event in March 2004, Min et al. (2009

Full access
William A. Komaromi and James D. Doyle

13 km out to a radius of 100 km from high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations, and demonstrate a reduction of I in the TC core and moat region along with an increase in I outside of the primary eyewall during secondary eyewall formation. However, they do not include the outflow region in their analyses. As is the case with outflow, the TC warm core has traditionally been infrequently documented by in situ observations because of its combination of high altitude

Full access