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Benoît Vié, Olivier Nuissier, and Véronique Ducrocq

probabilities: events forecast with a probability of 1 have an observed frequency of about 60%. This may be related to the underdispersion of both ensembles for low-level parameters (evidenced by rank histograms, see below). If all members predict a 10-m wind speed between 2 and 3 m s −1 , since the ensemble is underdispersive, there is a chance that the observation will fall out of that range. Rank histograms were computed for mesoscale low-level parameters that are known to have an impact on the

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Warren J. Tennant, Glenn J. Shutts, Alberto Arribas, and Simon A. Thompson

typically associated with mesoscale convective systems ( Bowler et al. 2008 ). The combined impact of the SCV and RP schemes on the model climate accuracy is small, but there is a contribution to increasing EPS spread growth during the model forecast. Following this, the first version of the SKEB (SKEB1) was implemented in the MOGREPS global model ( Bowler et al. 2009 ). Technically, SKEB1 is similar to the SKEB2 described in this paper. A three-dimensional random pattern with prescribed spatial and

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Thomas M. Hamill, Jeffrey S. Whitaker, Michael Fiorino, and Stanley G. Benjamin

1. Introduction The accuracy of official National Hurricane Center tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts has improved over the past several decades ( Rappaport et al. 2009 ). In part, this can be attributed to the general improvements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as increased resolution, improved methods of initialization, more realistic physical parameterizations, and the availability of a greater number of skillful models for generating consensus forecasts

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Mio Matsueda, Masayuki Kyouda, Zoltan Toth, H. L. Tanaka, and Tadashi Tsuyuki

and improvements in blocking prediction in medium-range forecasts, for which the initial-value problem is of greater concern than the boundary-value problem. Advances in these areas may lead to improvements not only in medium-range forecasting skill but also in model performance in climate projections. The NWP technique has progressed rapidly with advances in computer science. A 5-day weather forecast today is as reliable as a 2-day weather forecast 20 years ago, which represents a major

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William A. Komaromi, Sharanya J. Majumdar, and Eric D. Rappin

−1 , culminating in a 5-day error of 644 km. Fig . 2. Typhoon Sinlaku at 0000 UTC 10 Sep 2008. (a) Water vapor imagery from Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS)–University of Wisconsin, (b) 850–300-hPa deep-layer mean streamlines (from CIMSS), (c) ECMWF ensemble track forecast initialized at the same time, and (d) Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track and track of control WRF simulation initialized at the same time. The locations for the vorticity

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Sharanya J. Majumdar, Kathryn J. Sellwood, Daniel Hodyss, Zoltan Toth, and Yucheng Song

, S. Rahm , and O. Reitebuch , 2005 : Targeted observations with an airborne wind lidar. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. , 22 , 1706 – 1719 . Whitaker , J. S. , T. M. Hamill , X. Wei , Y. Song , and Z. Toth , 2008 : Ensemble data assimilation with the NCEP Global Forecast System. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 136 , 463 – 482 . Zhang , F. , C. Snyder , and R. Rotunno , 2003 : Effects of moist convection on mesoscale predictability. J. Atmos. Sci. , 60 , 1173 – 1185 . Zhang

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